Build, Don’t Guess: A Field Manual for Progress and Criticism
404 Field Manual: Explanations Over Predictions
I write for people who prefer maps to slogans. Reality responds to what you understand well enough to act on.
1) SIGNAL — Reality Check
There’s an objective world. Your job isn’t to decorate forecasts—it’s to explain what is and why it behaves that way.
Bridge wings. Gale force. Blind swell. Predictions said “fine.” The checklists that explained systems saved the watch.
“A journey in three acts: Learn. Yearn. Earn.” —Ed Reif, We Speak English Or People Die
2) RADAR — See the Unseen
Open a second path; the pattern changes. That’s interference—evidence that hidden structure shapes outcomes.
“I was asked today, ‘Who is the most important person I ever met?’ I answered: ‘That mountain.’” —Ed Reif, Share Fair Isle: Geography of Bliss
3) COURSE — The Knowledge Loop
No final truths—just better models that survive contact with reality and argument.
“The clock measures quantity. Your compass points to meaning.” —Ed Reif, Who Wants To Be A Time Millionaire
4) SHIPYARD — Creativity as Civic Infrastructure
Flip the default from preservation to improvement. Reward the question that upgrades the map, not the posture that guards it.
“Chart your own course through the tides of possibility.” —Ed Reif, Charting Love
5) COMPASS ROSE — Culture, Constraints, Direction
Uniformity is comfy; curiosity is costly—and worth it.
“Luck plays a role, but quality decisions lead to long-term success.” —Ed Reif, Luck Is Probability Taken Personally
Fallibilism Field Manual
1. Core Definition of Fallibilism
All human endeavors—including knowledge creation—are subject to error. There are no guarantees of certainty or infallible foundations. Recognizing error implies the possibility of truth. Fallibilism is optimistic realism: we can improve understanding without needing certainty.
2. Critique of Infallibility & Authority
Claims of absolute truth age poorly—and often justify tyranny. Infallibility suppresses freedom and criticism; fallibilism invites challenge.
3. Value of Criticism
Truth doesn’t need authority; it survives criticism. Testing ideas strengthens understanding by showing why alternatives fail.
4. Optimism, Knowledge & Progress
Failure is usually a knowledge problem, not destiny. Every solution makes better problems. Progress beats perfection.
5. Experts: Information vs. Understanding
Data ≠ depth. We want unifying explanations that simplify and widen reach, not fragments that impress but don’t guide action.
6. Beauty, Art & Truth
Aesthetics can be objective. Culture progresses when it chases beauty and truth over fashion and gatekeeping.
7. Moral Progress
From accepted slavery to near-universal rejection—morality evolves. Societies that institutionalize criticism advance faster.
8. Tradition of Criticism
The most valuable tradition is the one that challenges traditions. That’s how science, morals, and politics self-correct.
9. Illustrations & Examples
House M.D. is fallibilism dramatized: hypothesis → test → error → refine. Progress rides on mistakes, not in spite of them.
10. Overall Worldview
Endless progress, provisional knowledge, rational inquiry. Failure is feedback—the mechanism of growth.