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Archive for 2008

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I'd appreciate it if he would address me as "Colonel" ; or "Sir"; I believe I've earned it.

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Free will or free won't- Texas Holdem Cowboy Card Junkies

In the United States Of Unconscious gambling, poker without mon
ey is an opinion; and opinions about poker are just shovels we use to dig our own graves: because if you are not playing poker but thinking about playing poker you are already dead.

24 Hour Casinos-I Don't Have Time For That "Get Rich Click"

Everyone wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die.
Poker Zombies who are playing
24/7 just don’t like being here in the USA all the time. Now you're gambling from home and can lose the house! while thinking you're more "in control", it becomes part of everyday living.

The original name of this blog---Hotel @nyware is about location neutral internet gambling. Playing online poker insinuates its way in into our daily lives deeply and invisibly, whether by laptop, desktop or phone. Something incredible happens with poker which is never put down or can always be picked up. Gambling is always on, always reliably available. Always at the edge of "creative" impulse(s), Poker is as bad as any drug.

In this case, poker has nothing to do with money, and everything to do with a state of mind, a sensation of "beating the system", of feeling a winner, a way to find out if life is "gonna go the way I
want" because I don't want to fail.

In fact, it's not the money you go back for, it's the feeling that you are a winner, not the state of Nevada but the consistent state of mind that, "Yes, I can now beat life...and finally do the things I want to do." The funny thing is life is alway on our side, is always interested in our personal development. We never beat life, we participate in it....and the system helps us grow.

Paper or Plastic-America's scariest addiction just gets scarier

Played with buttons, clicks and phony chips, many people naturally underestimate the amount of money they're actually playing with.

Online Poker
Rooms(Oasis of the Zombies) are the in to your sane, a kind of voluntary madness. The surest way of getting nothing from something. The road less traveled-the psycho path! It's pain for sale, self punishment. Yet everythime you turn your computer on, this could be the day you win a big tournament.

"I'm doing online course work at Full Tilt and Poker Stars. I'm $80,000 credits short of graduating. You see, Money is life's report card"...Anything that isn't poker is a waste of your time. You skip classes and call in sick to work. Get the picture.

White Angry Holdem-The Cure

Growing old isn't optional, growing up is. You(th) can outgrow poker and not slip up--just by avoiding slippery places--- casinos, online and live ones.

Playing Holdem without a "license"...Look Mom, no trusted third party. Home isn't where your heart is, it's where your compute is.

Yet, what are the odds that poker will go away forever---You might have a better chance to do well after many types of cancer than you have of recovering from Texas Holdem addiction, or as I like to call it, "Cardlust"--- an all consuming default mode of thinking about poker and uncontrollable craving, like Lay's Potato Chips...I bet you can't eat (play) just one (Hand).

Hooked or Hooked Up

Behavior has consequences, but Poker "Pros" (addicts) don't care about consequences. Biology is biography (see my other post My brain made me re-buy) and if you are addicted to anything you are addicted to everything. More than that, the way you do anything is the way you do everything. With time, with money, with opportunity, the planets lineup with availability (live and online Full Tilt, Poker Stars, games) and exposure (ESPN WSOP, GSN High Stakes, WPT World Poker Tour). You're hooked up.

When you say "I messed up", no big deal. When you say " I messed up again" the behavior speaks louder than the words: continually gambling in the face of negative consequences and the desire to continue (something you know is bad for you)---takes it from a habit, a want, to a need. You're hooked.

What's the engine, and who's doing the steering?Our brain likes to dupe us into believing we are thinking when actually we are just rearranging our bad habits, a mind over money logic verses emotion farce. One thing for sure, dopamine receptors are the gas, your brain's own inhibitory systems act as the brakes.

You gotta be a somebody before you can be a nobody.

Calling poker a sport is like calling bald a hair color. I am done with this male pattern madness---It's lame, all about lose, lose of money, lose of health, lose of relationships, lose of things.

Go within or go without...more pain for sale. You can only quit once--I am quitting, among other things, second-hand smoking once and for all.

Check Please

Time to consider writing the only kind of book that makes sense, one I want to read: The Sex Of Poker-How to turn your bargain with chaos into a gambling lobotomy. Why stop at 12 steps.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
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God made the world, but it's held together with duct tape.

Honolulu Duct Tape Sighting!

I was stuck in afternoon traffic at Aloha Towers, when the engine cut out on my SAAB 900.

I pulled over, as the Japanese tourists enjoying their surf and sun "brain dump" looked on in awe as Adolfus,The Beast started smoking. Would there be life after luau for these temporary colonists, Team Abunai! That's what they were screaming "Danger" in Nihongo.
I opened the hood. The battery was on fire, and the cables were melting! This was not on the packaged tour---But Inspector Travelers were about to get an even bigger show when I pulled out the ultimate power tool and made Aloha graduates of them all...Let me splane...

The Honolulu Fire and Police came on the scene instantly, complete with 4-year varsity letters, Portuguese last names and healed acne scars. Spot on Guys! I was expecting Steve and Danno but due to the current Writer's Guild strike, couldn't make the trip.

It was a Code Marshmallow. The fire burnt itself out. That didn't stop the tow truck from hooking me up. I waved him off. Itold him I would do it like John Cruz sings, " Island Style".... Da Kine, Hawaiian slang for "whotsis", "thingummebob" or "watchamacallit.
Da Kine, The Hamburger Helper for Mainland haole (pronounced howlie) Scum
Auto meat grinder chop shops don't like Da Kine solutions, unless of course they are billing you for them.---I did not, however, give in to the urge of paying too much for things that comes with a side of Polynesian paradise.
Er, let me do the math, tow charges, plus mileage to Haleiwa's North Shore, parking fees, throw in Uncle and Auntie doing the repair. Sure I could drink, fight, laugh and love with the best, even get a tribal tattoo, but pay "Ohana" family prices, never.
I found it easier to speak and do the math in Hawaiian..because I only know like four words. One of them is Da Kine! the all purpose DIY solution.

Props to HPD who said the land yacht had to be towed, unsafe at any speed. I had other plans---A can of whoop asss---the essential tool for everything that life throws at you, duct tape...After all, this is no ordinary moter vehicle---It's a SAAB.

There are now 1000 and 2 things to do with er, is it duct or duck, tape!Oh you know, the 100-MPH adhesive.

Move over Victoria's Secret instant "boob jobs", post lasik eye protection, here comes Emergency Budget SAAB Engine Fire Repair Kit! Apparently, I am not the first SNAG, Sensitive New Age Guy to get Stuck In Traffic.

Here's to you Sweden, maker of the safest cars on the planet, and, The Ministry of Duct Tape and High Voltage, the Duct Tape Evangalists, and the crew at Henkel Consumer Adhesives and Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing, Co. (3M) who make the stuff for Wallet-bearing Americans like we who lack the patience, skill and dough to fix stuff right.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
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Egonomics 101---Overconfidence, Myopia and Hubris

The power of mind over money is rooted in mental bias . It is our own idiosyncratic way to distort our map of reality. Just as the menu is not the meal, this map is not the territory--because everyone experiences gambling differently. When your reality check bounces---change your map.

FLOUNDERS verses ROUNDERS -The difference in playing with the belief and intention of winning against just being social.

For the poker Balla, nothing is better than when that average Joe Player sits down at a poker table. Why? Because he just sat down with money he INTENDS to lose! There is no more +EV situation, and most tables in a live poker room are filled with players exactly like that. When you treat No Limit Hold em as only a game of chance instead of skill, it is not a law of probability, it's a fact for games with negative expectations: Risk of ruin is 100%.

A Joe plays when he "feels" like it, a Pro, all the time! Call them perpetual shortcuts JOES make when losing poker ASAP; and as any of the PROS will tell you, they don't need cards to win--that's for amateurs. Pro Players specialize in other people's biases! especially that malignant optimistic one that beats its chest and says, "I'm the best player at the table". Hotel Anyware considers himself an average player, except for the fact that he considers himself an average player!

Pros know the 60/40 end of a proposition--- when to hold em and when to fold em--- when you have some competitive advantage over somebody else. And you don't bet, you don't gamble, you don't invest, unless you have some competitive advantage.

Poker is a game of partial information, and when you have a competitive advantage you have to take into account this and, more important, behavioral factors. There is wise.... and there is otherwise:

Behavior Has Consequences

Irrational default modes of playing tend to show up in our game both when we win---the House Money Effect chip overload of playing loose with their money, and when we are getting on tilt with bad beats: That's when emotion and even confidence cloud our judgment and misguide our actions. The Volatility and Variance of NLH rewards patience, a clear mind, and, selective aggression.

American Airlines AA and the Concorde Effect—A True Story at the $100 Buy-In Bicycle Casino- Eating Dessert First.

I’m UTG, deep stacked with four limpers. I raise and get called by all four. I should muck right there but I don't. I’ve got pocket aces. The flop is low ball 3 4 7 rainbow. I bet big-a Dan Harrington "information" bet to see where I am at... and lose three players. The turn is a 5, a possible straight. I bet big again and get re-raised all in. I insta-call. The river is a blank. I flip over AA and Lift Ticket has Pocket 66. for the nuts.

The very next hand I get pocket kings--it was Dijon Vu, the same old mustard--My emotional return on investment however, my EROI, was saying "SEAT OPEN!" and the table could smell it and I got everyone calling, a family pot. I actually wanted to go home broke..and even though I tripped up, I lost to runner, runner, heart flush. I did. That's right,wanting to lose money. And that emotional return was more of a payoff than the financial one--when my black Kings got cracked by suited connectors (hearts, a baby flush!).

Granted, too much respect for money makes you a bad NLH player but I walked away from that session with knowledge: First, that my brain is the "most powerful computer." Second, when on tilt, my brain is the most powerful "broken computer ."

Tilt makes us sub-optimal for evaluating rewards, sizing up risks and calculating probabilities. It's like selling the car for gas money.

I walked away with a less broken computer, less sabotaging behavior, and more insight into the fact that self-delusion is more than possible in poker - it's highly likely!

Behavioral Finance ---The Black Box Flight Recorder has a name for my crash landing -- The Sunk Cost Fallacy --the refusal to get out of a losing position, because you've already written the money off -- resulting in losing even more money.

The British and French governments continued to fund the Concorde project long after it was determined that it was a loser---merely to justify past investment in it, rather than assessing the current rationality of investing.

You have an over pair on the flop and bet big. You get called. On the turn the texture of the board is dangerous. You bet out in the dark---suddenly you are stuck as your opponent straightens out.

We are in fact more sensitive to decreases in our chip count than we are to increases in them.

Doyle Brunson, a member of the MENSA Poker Club says: Great players lay down great hands. In fact, the ability to accept a loss and get away from a great hand is probably the most important (and difficult) skill to learn in poker. It's the difference between lightning and a lightning bug.

The ability to take a small loss to avoid a big one is the hallmark of this poker genius.We all start out as geniuses, and then allow our emotions to de-genius us. If you put good players into bad situations they usually turn bad.

Secrets to Beating America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players

Common sense is not so common, and these common flaws are often consistent, predictable, and can be exploited for profit.

Illusion of control - the tendency for players to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes which they clearly cannot. NLH is 100% luck and 100% chance. An opponent can (suck out) win one hand 100% of the time. NLH is too random to be left up to chance-yet good results will have you rejecting alternative ways to play--Nothing fails like success. Doing things right the first time is an obscenity--If your game isn't broke, don't just break it, break it before the competition does.

Loss aversion - The pain of chips lost generally is much greater than the pleasure of a chips gained. Playars strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains ( Quit early when winning and playing marathon sessions when stuck or chasing---see also sunk cost effects. To win money over the long haul, you’ve got to win big pots. And to win big pots, you can’t be held back by this thinking error. You can't play a safe tight- is -right solid game and expect to win. You can't avoid crisis, you must be in a perpetual one that you create...but selectively picking your spots).

Bias blind spot - The left side of the brain will do the math. But the right side will "tag" it with a story. That story usually doesn't compensate for one’s own cognitive biases.

Choice-supportive bias - It's called "anchoring" remember one’s choices as better than they actually were. (Using the past to predict the future). There is never a certain prescribed way to play a hand, just a way to think about them. I've had racks of chips only to be felted 14 hours later because instead of an attitude of gratitude, I had the Mick Jaggar Tumbling Dice "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing"soundtrack playing.

Endowment effect - When I own something, I will tend to value it more highly. If I have to sell it, I will probably want to ask more than it is really worth. (Not being able to let go of QQ,AA,KK---rookie moves, and over betting the pot) There's the expected result, based on analysis, and the actual result, based on events. Poker is a game of situations---I've learned to thrown away Kings, Queens, and with a four card flush on the board, even two red Aces!

Confirmation bias - The Indians Rain Dance worked because they never stopped dancing! The Jeane Dixon effect-of making a few right predictions, and overlooking the false ones. Searching for information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions. The delusions of reference--tells, lucky charms, hunches and coincidences.

Bandwagon effect - Do things because smart money people do or believe the same, like playing Helmeuth starting hands, or walking the painted line of Sklansky's Theory of Poker or Doyle's Super System. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour. That's what I find so cool about my game--being able to fire three barrels with squadush. (Thank you Poker Stars Sit and Go's)

Déformation professionnelle - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one’s own T.O.E., time on earth; assuming things that have similar traits are likely to be identical; forgetting any broader point of view. Past experience and feedback loops can make you Hola Lupe.

Disconfirmation bias -. We tend to use the information that is most handy when we make decisions/predictions. The path of least resistence mashed up with thin slicing.

Focusing effect - prediction bias occurring when players place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.

Hyperbolic discounting - the tendency for players to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are.

Impact bias -Our minds are suited for solving problems related to our survival, rather than being optimised for poker decisions. Players overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.

Information bias - Seeking TMI, too much information, even when it cannot affect action. Try playing in the dark, or blind---With less information to be processed and filtered, the brain assigns higher priority to the information that it does receive.

Neglect of probability - the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. Expected Value and Variance---weighing all the possible outcomes, weighting the more likely outcomes, and coming to a conclusion---play a big part in the decision process. There is therefore, never a certain prescribed way to play a hand, just a way to think about them

Mere exposure effect - the tendency for players to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them. If it's not broke, break it!

Omission bias - The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).

Outcome bias - the tendency to judge things on their outcome, and not on their process. Over weighing and overeacting to a bad beat-- the most recent information or circumstances.

Planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. It has taken me ten years to become an overnight Holdem success!

Post-purchase rationalization - the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.

Pseudocertainty effect - the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.

Selective perception - the tendency for expectations to affect perception. (Gamblers Fallacy)

Status quo bias - the tendency for players to like things to stay relatively the same.

Von Restorff effect - Purple Cows and items that “stands out like a sore thumb” have a tendency to be more likely to be remembered than other items.

Zero-risk bias - preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
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The Oracle: Professor Charles-Kingsfield-Nesson's Mashed Up Pulp-Free Poker Chase--- Get your BS in Holdem-"Pimp My Harvard"

Harvard Law School, the West Point of capitalism, has a little creative destruction going on at Roscoe Pound 's new student-led Poker Strategic Thinking Society (GPSTS), led by the mad hatter-- Professor Chuckles Nesson , the Crimson's own human hangover.Here he is putting a spin on the Confucian Idea: Give a man a fish you teach him for a day; teach him how to play poker, you don't have to teach him anything! The devil's advocate advocating for the devil---online gambling! Yea baby... Oh behave Gnarles.
A great many people think they are thinking about poker when they are merely rearranging their bad habits. Part card sharks, part Mother Teresas’ it’s still nice to see the education outreach of legal elite F.O.P. Friend of Poker- Alan Dershowitz ; AND Charlie Nesson , a tweeds-to-riches—Crimson Prof high on silicon crack. The Alan and Charlie show are in a tag team steel cage smack down match against the “Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act”(UIGEA) and the powers that be. barring U.S. banks from transferring money to online gaming companies. Gaming Law is in Vogue-and they are ready to take a bite of the apple. a once forbidden fruit.
It's so pre 9/11: Committing jihad on our basic life, liberty and the pursuit of a fast buck--- The assumption that gambling is bad has outlived its usefulness. Now anyone can do it with complete ease, because it means nothing at all, thanks to the CNN effect of dealing with everywhere and everything at once-Props to Full Tilt, Poker Stars and Bodog! and the acronyms--WPT and WSOP and GSN. When you start to read about the evils of NLH, you have to give up only one thing--- reading. Get smart watch TV---Get your Ph.D. in No Limit From ESPN's WSOP coverage, Get your license to thrills with WPT and GSN's High Stakes Poker.
Few things are harder to put up with than a good example--- If it wasn't for pimps, prostitutes, hustlers, gangsters there wouldn't be any No Limit Poker as we know it today. There was a time when one could almost be afraid to call himself a poker player because it meant so much, now it means so little. You are not keeping up with the Joneses. You’re dragging them down to your level on the green felt jungle.
White Angry Holdem--Listen up---Poker is the new golf, the new dude sport, so, relax and lower your standards. Former Senator Alfonso D'Amato, now chairman and chief spokesperson/lobbyist for the Poker Player's Alliance (PPA), along with Florida State Representative Robert Wexler have!

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
A Post Without Image

Being T/here in in Hawaii has put me in a unique space .. that supported personal exploration, oneness and the mystical experiences of Huna, the Shamans about manifesting and tapping into "mana" or the life force.

I have had a tremendous amount of good fortune, starting with this gig on the TV Show, Lost, and the teaching contracts I got, and my reverse commute from my condo in Ka-a-a-va (Yes that's how you spell it).

 I am the hero of my own life.When I think of The Hero's Journey, refers to Joseph Campbell's basic pattern found in many narratives from around the world. The Bill MOyers Interview still rings in my ears....

It starts with sacrifice, from sacrifice comes bliss.My general formula for my students is"Follow your bliss." Find where it is, and don't be afraid to follow it.Joseph Campbell 

Bill Moyers: Did you ever have the sense of... being helped by hidden hands?

Joseph Campbell: All the time. It is miraculous. I even have a superstition that has grown on me as a result of invisible hands coming all the time - namely, that if you do follow your bliss you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while, waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living. When you can see that, you begin to meet people who are in your field of bliss, and they open doors to you. I say, follow your bliss and don't be afraid, and doors will open where you didn't know they were going to be.

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