Traveling By Land, Sea and Air Hotel @nyware: November 2008

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Archive for November 2008

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
A Post Without Image

Poker is considered the purest of games; and No Limit Holdem (NLH) is surely the purest of the "sacred" illnesses, also known as, addictions, because it is behavioral rather than chemical. see Grey Matters- In search of The All-In Molecule

Gambling isn’t as scandalous as writing about it.You can’t be a poker blogger and not think about addiction. It’s like not thinking about death because it lasts too long. More than that, there is very little difference biologically between what is going inside the head of a drug addict and a poker "pro". There is no shame, however, in being a Poker Pro, only in still being one, once you realize your brain made you re-buy.

Furthermore, as the selfish
brain fears death and looks for predictable experiences, poker is a great placebo that hijacks the brain with a predictable surprise: card players are surprised if they win and surprised if they lose. see: Poker= f(dopamine flow); Money= happiness in the United States of Unconsciousness

It's not winning that makes a winner, but losing. The excitement is not from the winning, it's avoiding the disaster, because you're flirting with it every day. It's not like every game you play is the Super Bowl, but every game is the Playoffs.

Let's drill down and go even further: Poker is not unique from Crack. It is crack. The way the system works is if we get rewarded in a surprising way, dopamine is released and that kind of alerts the brain how that is going to happen again.

There really is no way for your brain to differentiate, between a
love affair, or the behavior of gambling, ie.the pursuit of a fast buck or for that matter, pursuing a drug. When run amok, drugs, alcohol (Substances) and sex and poker (behavior) are not unique "moral" challenges, but brain diseases.

The disease of poker is especially destructive because it affects the very brain areas that people need to play good poker---thinking straight, applying good judgment, and making good decisions for their lives (It messes with Executive Function, seeking a short-term gain at the expense of a large long-term lose). Gambling thinking is magical thinking, the selfish brain competing for your finite resources and instead of mindfulness, you get mindlessness.

Just as in "diseases" like diabetes or asthma, The Poker affliction can be managed through proper treatments and individual responsibility.It's a brain disease,and a consumer choice. It doesn't show a lack of will power, for even the mantra "Everything In Moderation" provide an excuse for (the) bad behavior.

What is a habit but self-discipline? Yet, consider you are not playing because you like to; you are doing it because you have to, especially if your playing poker usurps all other "normal" activities, like sleeping,eating and drinking.

and now:

The Demographics of Overconfidence--- Beating America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players

Men Behaving Badly or My Brain Made Me Re-buy

You gotta be willing to die, however, in order to live, to be a great player: to Go All In with the best or bluff with the worst. Consequently, T
here's no such thing as good and bad math in holdem: 1+1=infinity, but they are empty infinities of bliss and death, an abyss of divine enjoyment. This is the Sex of Poker, your bargain with chaos. Are your ready to shuffle up and deal with it?

You see,
Poker Doesn't think. It is an infinite game;the overall phenomenon of NLH has no end. It is always a frontier, always on the edge .The rules are simple but the dynamics of the game are ruthless: it is designed to F with you. For instance: If playing against 5 other opponents there are more than 9.7 trillion possible hand combinations that could come up.

Once in a while there's a night when you get exactly where you're trying to go. Magic. Then you chase that memory for a while. (Nostalgia) But precisely because you so want to get there it becomes harder and harder
. If you think long, you think wrong, it make your game weaker because Poker doesn't think.

Like you(th), poker is best understood in retrospect: from within the experience, you cannot see it for what it is. see: Feel Athletic, go to a sports bar; feel lucky, a casino.

Denial is a River in Vegas
The future is not what it used to be---neither is taking risks --thanks to Wall Street's Viagra up and down math and after math, even number atheists and non "investors" get the picture. The market cannot be controlled and neither can a deck of cards.

Poker is not a form of gambling---but gambling is a form of poker
Most market theories and models assume “investors” are rational decision makers who act in their own best interests. But, in reality, our investment brain often drives us to do things that are quite illogical, but make perfect emotional sense.

Ipod Shuffle Mode-Delusions of Reference
Poker’s patterns are not our own. There is no order to this chaos. Less an illusion of control, more a delusion of reference, magical thinking, however, may lead you to believe you have found a Super System.
Poker is more reflective of real-life "wild" randomness because No-Limit has major strategic and tactical components to it that is mashed up with the quasi-dealer element of a shuffled deck.

Think of the ipod shuffle mode----the shuffle mode has an algorithm that randomizes the selection of songs that your IPod can select. Any 'pattern' you discern from what songs your IPod selects is illusory. Just because you los
t five times in a row, doesn’t mean you are “due” to win one. Yet, Motion Creates Emotion...not progress.

I’ll talk about Discounting The Future in this post; a mental bias that affects all sorts of risky behavior---from the paradox of smoking cigarettes in the healthy conscious USA to the fact that more people in America die from over eating rather than starvation, fast food for a fast world. But let's move from th
e United States of Unconscious eating,Your brain on French Fries to Unconscious Gambling, your brain on Poker and Decision

The quicker you go, the longer it takes---That's why Instant Gratification Takes Too Long. Perform the Psychological Judo and
Procrastinate NOW! because Infinite Patience brings immediate results to your game.

The Impatience of Patience

There is Mr. Right and Mr Right NOW---Players very robustly want instant gratification right now, and want to be patient in the future.
Instead of inspiring caution, when we risk money, our brains' typical response to this uncertainty is to sharply reduce the importance of the future in our decision-making, an effect known in Behavioral Finance as hyperbolic discounting.

Most Rounders know hand values and preflop strategy, but post flop is where a bit of hyperbole comes in. This irrational affliction is ubiquitous in the DNA of grinders; a mind over money problem,er, I mean challange, valuing imminent hands over future ones.

Poker's outward simplicity-The ability to affect the outcome is present, unlike roulette. If no one sees any cards, the cards did not play a role in the outcome. Thus, the outcome was determined by the betting of the players, clearly a process of skill or strategy. If he checks bet. If he bets raise. If he re-raises, go All -In. Put the commitment on him; last in money creates the edge instead of First Money Vigorish. see First in Money is so pre 9 Eleven

There is no YES in Yesterday, because of the luck factor and the fact that poker is situational, you don't learn from you mistakes, you un-learn from them.

Consequently, The future isn't what it used to be because it is perfectly reasonable to "think" you will suck out and get lucky. (That makes it a thinking problem, not a gambling one). In fact, those who think about the past (scared money) have no future. You see, Too much respect for money, therefore, makes you a bad no limit holdem player. This game is sick, isn't it? Check please.

Spending Your Derelict You(th) at the Poker table
A little past playing good is playing badly.

"There is no shame in being a poker pro, only in staying one" Ed Reif Wise and Otherwise 2007

In order to open the Black Box up after your game crashes, there shouldn’t be any disconnect between what I’m doing and what I want to be the future...But on some level, there always is.

Forget about the degeneracy that surrounds poker. the addiction, drug and alcohol use, depression, and sleep deprivation. After all, Few things are harder to put up with than a good example--- If it wasn't for pimps, prostitutes, hustlers, gangsters there wouldn't be any No Limit Poker as we know it today.

There was a time when one could almost be afraid to call himself a poker player because it meant so much, now it means so little. You are not keeping up with the Joneses. You’re dragging them down to your level on the green felt jungle.

It's like using Visa or MasterCard--- You(th)buy(s) things they can’t afford on a credit card, and as a result you get to buy less over the course of your lifetimes.

After all, Who thinks of saving for retirement when the urge to merge and spend is always on and ever present. Who thinks of Insurance? I am in the business of creating risk. Insurance protects me from risk, you're betting you're gonna lose, you're gonna get sick, you're gonna get in an accident. Nah, I'll bet on me, and fund the risk myself.

Putting some quo in your status or “But there’s Still A Chance”

If you ask people, ‘Which do you want right now, Vegetables or Pizza ?’ they say, ‘Pizza !’

But if you ask, ‘Which one a week from now?’ they will say, ‘Vegetables .’ Now we want Pizza , beer and cigarettes. In the future, we want to eat Vegetables , Vitamins, and drink Evian bottled water.

Likewise, you can always tell a poker player, but you can't tell them much---about holdem being a game of position, about holdem being a game of (selective) aggression, about folding 60% of your starting hands.

Ah, but you are going to need a compelling reason to fold more starting hands. As long as you remember your choices as better than they actually were (Using the past to predict the future), there's more pain for sale. (Your brain made you re- buy).

There is never a certain prescribed way to play a hand, just a way to think about them. I've had racks of chips only to be felted 14 hours later because instead of an attitude of gratitude, I personally have the Mick Jaggar Tumbling Dice "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing"soundtrack playing. There is no limit like no limit!

Holdem is too random to be left up to chance so you want to play against people who say, “But there’s still a chance” or better yet, “But they were suited!” Most players will gravitate towards low probability high payoff bets. Most players experience risk in the short-term thinking that money doesn’t grow on trees but trees grow to the sky.

To short circuit this kind of thinking, simply ask yourself, If they weren’t suited , would you still play them---Of Course not. Making decisions by accepting the default option-But they were suitedand There’s always Bob (Hope) is hopeless. Yet something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing.

Choosing Preferences over Outcomes

It's not success or failure only outcomes.It's not about winning or losing, but exceling and making good decisions in spite of the outcome! ER

Poker is, first and foremost, a game of managing resources, or if non are available, being resourceful. You can explain anything with preferences- For example “I always play 7 deuce unsuited”. It’s The Hammer. 7-2 off suit is considered the worst hand in Texas Hold'em. ... Because it is the worst, some players will play it for fun, and will continue to keep betting, even if they expect to lose This .Belief perseverance-that you can spike that one out, and get lucky is every where in Poker, the seductive NOW moment in the the game. It's becoming a routine observation.

This malignant optimism can create the happy accident-- you can get lucky 100% of the time....on any one hand.

This is a predictable surprise in holdem, the cost of doing "Business" are chips, and BAD BEATS are the overhead!

Playing holdem without a helmet

This is one of the secrets to Beating America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players:Most players are experience rich and technique poor. They most likely are gambling not betting. This is your demographic of"overconfidence", of magical thinking,Every Americon Gambler is only a hand away from a very humbling wake-up call.

Most people will choose preferences over outcomes. like playing Russian roulette and saying to yourself "You have a 5/6 chance of surviving. People sometimes select the choice they put less monetary value on. That is why calling to the river is a way of folding. The Cult of the amateur has drunk the kool-aid. The close choice of say, a heavy metal fan of Metalica verses Mozart Effect. The glass is not half full, it’s not big enough for gamblers. If you swim in the river, you drown in the river. Things don't even out with time, they even out with the number of hands you play against "fish" PS Don't tap the Aquarium, you'll scare the fish.

Every hand of poker is a series of risk/reward decisions. America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players cannot always figure out what is in their best interest.

Money and risk are abstract, complex things. We act less rationally, less logically, and more emotionally when playing cards. When your left brain gets good at telling your right brain what to do, you even the score, and gain a competitive advantage.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
A Post Without Image

Poker And Investing- Two Games of Incomplete Information

On any given hand, poker is about 85% luck and 15% skill, but over the course of thousands of hands, it is the reverse - 15% luck and 85% skill. See Poker's Pattern's Are Not Our Own

Mo' money is pissed away by players who know the right thing to do , but don't do it anyway. See My Brain Made Me Rebuy!

The Poker Universe always has the first move. There’s uncertainty with every hand? Yes, it’s always a coin flip, not always 50/50, sometimes 60/40. This is not rocket science. It's brain surgery. Give yourself a poker lobotomy with Behavioral Finance. see What you think is right is wrong with your game.

Behavioral finance can inform poker. Superlative performance is not just the ability to eliminate chance, but also to recognize opportunity, and, more importantly, when your LEFT brain gets good at telling your RIGHT brain what to do.

Holdem is too random to be left up to chance.When you treat No Limit Hold em as only a game of chance instead of skill, it is not a law of probability, it's a fact for games with negative expectations: Risk of ruin is 100%.---Have the best hand, the best draw, or get out.

In other words, know the 60/40 end of a proposition--- when to hold em and when to fold em--- when you have some competitive advantage over somebody else. Know when the odds are in your favor and bet, or know when the odds are not in your favor and get out of the way. You don't "invest", unless you have some competitive advantage.

Making the wrong mistake---playing too many hands. "Why? do we do it. Because we didn't come to play poker just to fold. We want action and we want to take down pots. The average Joe thinks they have to get into more pots to win more hands. What you need to do is play fewer, better hands. Win Chips, not pots.

Folding, is the "invisable" way to win. Try telling that to a Friday night action player: "Let's go to the casino and fold 60% of our hands!" Yet there is no cure for the common cold-of getting EVENitius---aka Chasing, staying in a pot to make an unlikely hand, usually (but not always) with poor odds.

Making the right mistake-Many irrational poker-player behaviors actually “make sense” when viewed from a Behavioral Finance point of view. Spotting someone the nuts and sucking out can take you from Zero to Hero.

Poker is a game of maximizing wins (when you have the best hand) and minimizing loss (when you don't have the best hand). In the last hundred hours of play I have had pocket aces 25+ times, and they held up about 80% of the time. This is really a rare incredible run. Although against a random hand, they do tend to hold up more. Still, if you know your opponent has them, and you're in a multi-way pot, suited connectors looks real good, because Pocket Aces is gonna push all-in with a continuation bet on the flop. So: DON'T BET DANGEROUS FLOPS IN MULTIWAY POTS. AA demands isolation.

GREAT players experience more bad beats than GOOD players. Great players get their money into the pot with the best hand and the suckers are forced to draw out. As a corollary, great players rarely deliver a bad beat: they almost never get their money into the pot drawing slim.

Raise or fold," is another maxim used in poker. If you have a hand that's worth being in, then the hand is worth raising. If it's not
worth raising, then it's probably not worth being in. You can save a lot of money in poker and in investing if you know when to say bye bye.

Note to self: A new investment trend: backing poker (players) . My “traders” are all poker players; in a nutshell, Hotel Anyware will provides the entire bankroll for a player and covers the player’s losses while keeping 50% of their winnings. Of course there is more to it: players have daily loss limits, minimum table-hour requirements and an exclusivity agreement.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
A Post Without Image

Why Players make irrational financial decisions.

By the end of this post, you'll have a better understanding of some of the anomalies (that's an S.A.T. bonus word) that Sklansky's Theory of Poker and Doyle's Super System have failed to explain. Warning: If you are over forty, please leave this blog because---The truth will set you free but first it will piss you off.

Poker witho
ut money is an opinion. I got my hunting license--I am the sharpshooter that comes down from the hill after the battle to shoot the wounded, in this case, the dead. I'll give it my best shot.

A is for Aces-- You(th) says
“I want something new everyday.” and “I want to be surprised”. You(th) says, I'll play 3,4 suited , spot him the nuts and suck out.

Brunson may be the Godfather of Poker , keeping his friends close and his enemies closer, but Peter Eastgate, is The Geekfather, through the numbness of numbers, Peter picked up the pieces of everyone else's mathematical dust, connected the dots and won the WSOP main event.

YOU(th) sees that scared money is a misuse of imagination. You(th) hears the internet stutter of brick and mortar ABC players. You(th) feels that playing with more luck and less skill, is almost the right way to play NLH and (almost) the right way to play is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug.

Eastgate didn't just bring math to the game, he brought strategy, getting others to play with the cards he mentally deal
t them. I like to call Eastgate's style of play, "Boiling the frog" In this case, infinite patience brought immediate results for Mr. Science.

The Geekfather knew that from his online experience--things don't even out with time, the even out with the number hands you have played. I'll get to Dennis Philips in a moment, the way he played Doyle's favorite hand "AK because it is so easy to throw away"....which is what Phillips did to cost him the championship,
essentially crippling himself when he drew air on the flop and made a continuation bet only to be re raised with a bluff from Demidov, The Mini-Geekfather, shipping a huge stack of chips to the Russian.

Final Table-ist Scott M
ontgomery played Tom Dwan's version of New (North) Americon Geekfather Poker Club: Ba da bing ba da boom. He dared to be naive

We'll call it New (North)American Geekfather Poker because the word F_ck was taken.. Geekfather poker is anything You(th) could get away with!

If practice makes perfect, and nobody's perfect, then why practice? There is absolutely no substitute in NLH (No Limit Holdem) than for a genuine lack of preparation.

Geekfather Poker is not a "A-ha" experience, it is more of a "holy-shit" experience. Montgomery was no miraculous exception

Calling poker a sport is like calling bald a hair color. Montgomery's style of play is not a game, it's a concussion! In fact, the bad beats Scott gave his opponents left them with no other option but The Big "Oh Well" Shrug a WTF, "That's Poker"; and "It's only a game", the lesser known, "I don't have a dream" speech.

Most Geeks like Scott, are experience rich and technique poor. Home isn't where their heart is, it's where their computer is; Multi tabling at Pokerstars and FullTilt.

Without an Internet connection, it's (like) having a seizure or a mild stroke--Online poker makes You(th) more.

Something inc
redible happens with the availability 24/7 of online poker and the ubiquitous exposure of WPT, GSN and WSOP ESPN coverage: Poker is never put down — is always on, always reliably available. SHIFT happens---A collection of situations you haven't played yet; of the things you don't know. there is a massive collection of unknowledge, the anti-hands that contain all the hands that may still change your poker life.

The secret of staying poker-young isn't lying about your age, it's havng bandwidth-, an internet connection and using online gaming sites. It brings a 10x exponential edge to the nth degree to a live game.

B is for Cajones--Take em out of your purse or grow a set.

Godfathers Raise ATC (any two cards) only to be re-raised by Geekfathers also holding a range of hands from 88 to A 10, only to be re-shoved back over the top of them by uber Geeks.That’s
The Power Of New Americon Poker—the language of betting, a slang that rolls up its sleeves, spits in the street, screams strength possibly more than any other and gets the work done. Tells Don’t Tell – Geekfather's Do with the language of their betting. And it's not really in the DNA of ABC players to really do business with the Geekfather's. Live Cash game specialists speak with a internet stutter.

The first Rule About New Americon Geeklfather Poker Club, Don't talk about New Americon Poker Club. The second rule, tip your dealer, the third:The surest way to win a huge pot in NLH is to spot'em the nuts and suck out! When this happens: Hate the win, not the winner. I call this, Making the right mistake! The number one thingw e hate about the game we love--NL Holdem.

Playing 'in the dark': betting that Godfather's DON'T have the cards rather than that they do is a strategy, not THE strategy. That's Durr's Zero Gravity thinking.Creating rather than responding has less to do with originality and more to do with the unexpected.

An Aggressive game is a game of strategy and deception. A passive game is one where money flows from bad to good players. A loose game is a game of money and odds; a tight one is a battle for the antes. This is all just karaoke Poker, a cheap imitation of Stu Unger.

It was Ready, Fire, Aim---unloading three bullets--- flop, turn AND river, into a pot, holding Squadush-"nothing".The Stu Unger three-barrel bluff worked throughout Scott's tournament

C is for Card Lust---It's about the juice,where people and bits of information meet.

Poker is a game of situations, like milk, with an expiration date stamped right on the carton. There are no perfect strategies. Poker history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme!

It's not so much about "counting your outs" and "folding AK in a raise, re-raised pot"-- that cause-effect relationship stuff. It's more about the anti-poker game--situations. A collection of situations you haven't played yet; of the things you don't know. there is a massive collection of unknowledge,the anti-hands that contain all the hands that may still change your poker life.

This is the wake up call for ABC Phil's, the by-the- book players. The so-called new ways to play holdem are the old ones heated up in a microwave for 15 seconds. You see, Poker Doesn't think. It is an infinite game;the overall phenomenon of NLH has no end. It is always a frontier, always on the edge.

Everything we think we know about tournament poker is changing, so we really know nothing.

The Power of New Americon Poker is about being the last in the pot. It too can be an extremely effective way of accumulating chips in spite of your hole cards, not because of them.

  • First in vigorish is Dan Harrington’s concept. Being the first player to bet, "creates" the edge of being the first to put your chips into the middle of a pot. OK.
  • Sklansky’s old school calls it The Gap Concept ---“you need a better hand to call a raise with than you would need to open the betting yourself”. Sure.
Poker is a game of partial information and the language of betting "last in" is information dominance.Making a bet that leaves no option available to the opponent other than to call is asymmetrical warfare. It disarms their can of whoop ass-- deep stack arsenal. Hands which are ok to try and re-steal from a loose aggressive player are frequently horrible hands to call that final bet with. No one likes calling big all-ins with hands like 88 or A-10 regardless of how sure they are that a player is stealing from them.

D is For Domination-the power of mind over money

What America does best is produce the ability to accept failure. There's no limit like no limit. Basically, the 2008 WSOP opponents could be divided into two types ---those that played like Sklansky, Gordon, and Harrington, and those that didn't. Guess who did the dividing? This year, it was the "foreign" players, ThePeter Eastgate's and Ivan Demidov's.

Some were good at living through these three things, even if it killed them:
M Factor---there is no survival stage.
Gap Concept---your cards are immaterial more often than not.
First In--- hands of value are based on 1-2-3-
1.Your position,
2. The players you are confronting
3, Your Chip Stack

First in Redux---Last is the new first

First in the pot is the old school idea of taking pots down pre-flop or pre-turn using stack pressure. Especially when a tournament is in the money stage. Today, Playahs may go into the game with a larger bank and better cards (Dennis Phillips AK against Ivan Demidov's AQ), they will lose in the long run to the Ballas, who are last in. Ivan put the commitment back on Phillips with a peflop AK raise by Dennis, with a reraise with AQ-and Dennis folded. he couldn't seem to get traction, to get his Geek on--Yielding to the advice of his Coach and the four month layoff, thinking "When you don't have good cards, somebody else probably does"...and fold AK, Doyle's favorite because it's the easiest hand to get away from.

Gain insight into some of the underlying reasons and biases that cause some players (Including yours truely) to behave irrationally (and often against our best interests). This new found knowledge will give you an edge when it comes to making poker financial decisions.

When you ASSuME you make an ASS out of U and ME--One of the most basic instincts is the assumption that players are rational "Moneymakers" who seek to increase life, liberty and the pursuit of a fast buck. Adam Smith's "rational self interest" , the grip of the invisable hand isn't so tight, because it leaves out emotions and other extraneous factors, when it comes to making economic choices.

Reality at the poker table is a collective hunch where motion creates emotion.Poker
plays, not like a sport, but a concussion. In a New York minute, an ACME anvil pancakes you, and then a split second later, you’re expanded - accordion-style - back to normal, like some tempurpedic mattress. It’s a formula of ins and outs, need and speed, aggravation and acceleration

The "Rational self interest" assumption doesn't reflect how people behave in the real world. The fact is people frequently behave irrationally. It's called tilt.Everyday Players enjoy the risk associated with winning; and are for the most part, risk averse--they don't want to lose---and when they do, you can be sure TILT is not far behind.
Our brain is the most powerful computer. When on tilt, our brain is the most powerful broken computer . Tilt makes us sub-optimal for evaluating rewards, sizing up risks and calculating probabilities. Your brain on poker and decision: Your bankroll increases when the LEFT brain gets good at telling the RIGHT brain what to do. How does it help to know that you're literally "of two minds"? The Limbic RIGHT and Analytic LEFT.

Consider how many people buy in to the WSOP at 10Kin the hope of making the final table From a purely logical standpoint, it does not make sense to play the tournament when the odds of winning are overwhelming against the player. Despite this, thousand of people buy in, turning the Wimbledon of Poker into a carnival game, The Powerball of Poker.

When faced with a decision,
if a player is given two equal choices, one expressed in terms of possible gains and the other in possible losses, people would choose the gain alomost every time. The average Joe can't make lay downs. If he has trips or top two pair, and there is a flush or a straight on the board. His money is going in, and you'll get payed off. This is considered "lose averse" not "risk averse". Since gambling is risky behavior and everybody is there to gamble. I like to call this Stone Age Poker.

I am about to go against my mantra "Don't tap the aquarium" !

A fish is the last to know it is in the water, and there is a greatpoker shift
coming that is seperating the fish from the sea.

The biology of fear for Homo Economicus is about running away from saber tooth tigers, and trying to live past your twentieth birthday. That impulse to avoid lose is so strong.There is a little piece of neanderthal in everyone's game that responds primitively to certain poker situations.

Caveman Fred has been hard-wired by evolution to have a malignant optimism and bullish outlook on things. Fred suffers from an incorrect interpretation of statistics (Gamblers Fallacy). Fred also has an irrational tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses (lose-averse) and even experiences more pain with a lose than pleasure from a gain (Prospect Theory); choosing a small reward that arrives soon as opposed to a larger reward that arrives later (risk-averse). The future is uncertain.Why wait?

Under the influence of powerful Flintstone emotions and drives, players often end up doing the opposite of what they think is best for themselves, even at the moment of acting. No matter how much we evolve as players, we're still capable of going "Yabadabadoo"!

Put pressure on our Fred —and he responds -- with a rush of adrenaline and the urge to fight or flee. Those survival impulses are hardwired into the oldest layers of all of our brains. Emotions like these can damage our game not to mention devastate our bankroll . When we give in to our old-brain reflexes, we'll probably regret it.

When we feel under attack, we experience a visceral response that may lead us down the primitive path. If we feel shamed, we may withdraw, like the caveman taking flight.(fold) If we feel angry, we might lash out and fight.(Call/Go over the top all-in with marginal holdings).

All behavioral biases have some evolutionary reasons for existing and it's very tough to overcome those deep-rooted impulses! So here’s the Neural Poker Challange--- we have two systems for reacting to risk–a primitive intuitive system and a more advanced analytic system–and they’re operating in parallel. And it’s hard for the neocortex to contradict the amygdala.

Bamm! Bamm! Beat- you -over -the- head- with -a -club- smash-mouth poker is motivated by "red" emotions -- anger, fear, greed – and by "green" ones --confidence and enthusiasm. Its not a question of if, but when, will our greens and reds light up our game.

The empathy gap is the difference between how we behave in "hot'' states---those of anxiety, courage, fear; and ''cold'' states of even-keeled calm. Our empathy gap impacts our thoughts and behaviors to the point where we cannot seem to predict how we will behave in a hot state when we are in a cold state.

Putting the Odds back into the God(fathers)

You're feeling on edge, but is the fear nothing to fear but devolutionary fear itself? Have you felt this way before? How intense is the feeling? Understanding the f.e.a.r., the false information appearing as real. It is key to getting control. After all, nothing real can be threatened, nothing unreal exists, Herein lies the peace of God

Identify the cause of the feeling. What is the source of it? Trace the feeling back to its source. Explore a way out by feeling the fear and doing anyway---that's where your game expands

I dared to do something different and my poker game grew larger. For me, it was Monday's Fulltilt- Stu Unger- three -barrel- stone -cold bluff I pulled off. It was energizing, a peak experiences much like I had as a track athlete at Comsewogue High School.

I lose money frequently, but in small amounts, and make money rarely, but in large amounts. I am a crisis hunter. You can't avoid crisis in NLH, you must be in a perpetual one that you create. Get lucky or bluff was the selective aggression I used, and poker rewards not only infinite patience, but selective aggression.

Give Yourself A Poker Lobotomy

It's not so much about "counting your outs" and "folding AK in a raise, re-raised pot"-- that cause-effect relationship stuff. It's more about the anti-neuro-poker game--situations. A collection of situations you haven't played yet; of the things you don't know. there is a massive collection of unknowledge,the anti-hands that contain all the hands that may still change your poker life.

The Sex Of Poker logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know. I considered that many of my Jackpots and big hands were caused and accelerated by their being unexpected.---of me being an anti-gambler. The upshot is that:knowledge leads to action but lack of knowledge can also lead to action.

The “Open Source” world that everybody is smarter than anybody, this is the NEW Herd mentality. WSOP Survivorship Bias-We see the winners who cash and learn from them, while forgetting the huge unseen herd of railbirds -losers. who were making all the right mistakes.

A poker game is not static. It's a dynamic, living organism that changes from moment to moment. You have to respond to those changes. You have to be the change you want to see . . In the RW(Real World) change is seen as some “thing” built to last. Would you rather have a TEMPORARY change to your game that lasts as long as it is useful, or rather a LASTING change that continues to last far beyond any limits of usefulness.

Players underestimate, on average, the probability and impact of improbable events. Going completely broke is consistently unexpected, but highly likelyin cash games. Buying into a poker game , unlike buying a car, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?

Nevertheless, when it comes to NLH, what you don’t know is far more relevant than what you do know. Consider that many huge hands can be caused and sped up by their being unexpected, that case eight on the river for a suck out, a four card flush free roll. That is why after rerading Doyle and Sklansky's books, I became more and more aware of the shortcomings in these conventional "systemns" and Theories as they relate to people's poker behaviors.

The Winner's Curse

Hate the win, not the winner, the game , not the player.
Short-term winners believe they are good players, and thus don't make changes the anticipation of consequences---this type of behavior has consequences-Nothing fails like success. A broken clock is right twice a day---and because of the huge luck factor in poker, you can win lots of pots(not always chips).

Where Attention Goes, Chips Flow-- When bad things happen to nice starting hands.

My mental accounting anchor of AJ=Bad Beat. Under mental accounting, I live a personal "storyline " concerning my history with each an every AJ I have ever played , not unlike having a personal Monica relationship with each AJ because I cannot get it through my thick skull that the loses-they are imaginary. It is not about winning or losing. It is about exceling.

A behavioral game theory approach realizes that anyone can get lucky 100% of the time, and, more than that, realize that, good play will have bad beats.

Behavioral Game theory is the more ‘down-to-earth’ approach dealing with one case at a time, especially when Lift Ticket plays with ATC, any two cards- if they don’t know what they’re doing how can you!

The hand that has the highest potential must be a hand that gets played in different ways and in different situations. It's going to be somewhere between the hands that are rarely folded, and the hands that are rarely played. Ace Jack Heads Up is almost never folded before the flop, so we know AJ cannot be the most profitable hand. So keep that in perspective.

Time without attention is worthless, so value attention over time. Therefore: Stop Waiting For “Better Spots” To Get Your Money In! Pick a favorite hand--commit your attention to it and play it strong.

If you don’t have attention, you don’t have time, and if you don't have time-er, well time is money. Can't play poker without money.

Joe plays when he "feels" like it, a Pro, all the time! Call them perpetual shortcuts JOES make when losing poker ASAP; and as any of the PROS will tell you, they don't need cards to win--that's for amateurs. Pro Players specialize in other people's biases! especially that malignant optimistic one that beats its chest and says, "I'm the best player at the table".

Secrets to Beating America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players:Behavioral Finance-Part ART Part SCIENCE:
Common sense is not so common, and these common flaws are often consistent, predictable, and can be exploited for profit. We are not logical, we are emotional, and motion creates emotion-winning and losing in the stock market or in poker have some suprising failings--Let's reframe them and call them OUTCOMES:
Illusion of control - the tendency for players to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes which they clearly cannot. NLH is 100% luck and 100% chance. An opponent can (suck out) win one hand 100% of the time. NLH is too random to be left up to chance-yet good results will have you rejecting alternative ways to play--Nothing fails like success. Doing things right the first time is an obscenity--If your game isn't broke, don't just break it, break it before the competition does.
Loss aversion - The pain of chips lost generally is much greater than the pleasure of a chips gained. Players strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains ( Quit early when winning and playing marathon sessions when stuck or chasing---see also sunk cost effects.
To win money over the long haul, you’ve got to win big pots. And to win big pots, you can’t be held back by this thinking error. You can't play a safe tight- is -right solid game and expect to win. You can't avoid crisis, you must be in a perpetual one that you create...but selectively picking your spots). too much respect for chips (money) makes you a bad NLH player.
Bias blind spot - The left side of the brain will do the math. But the right side will "tag" it with a story. That story usually doesn't compensate for one’s own cognitive biases. The grip of the invisable hand of Poker capitalism is creative destruction. You gotta perpetually blow your whole game up, shift gears, and take a wrecking ball tothe Winners curse, After all, Few teams win back to back championships because nothing fails like succcess.
Choice-supportive bias - It's called "anchoring" remember one’s choices as better than they actually were. (Using the past to predict the future). There is never a certain prescribed way to play a hand, just a way to think about them. I've had racks of chips only to be felted 14 hours later because instead of an attitude of gratitude, I had the Mick Jaggar Tumbling Dice "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing"soundtrack playing.
Endowment effect - When I own something, I will tend to value it more highly. If I have to sell it, I will probably want to ask more than it is really worth. (Not being able to let go of QQ,AA,KK---rookie moves, and over betting the pot) There's the expected result, based on analysis, and the actual result, based on events. Poker is a game of situations---I've learned to thrown away Kings, Queens, and with a four card flush on the board, even two red Aces!
Confirmation bias - The Indians Rain Dance worked because they never stopped dancing! The Jeane Dixon effect-of making a few right predictions, and overlooking the false ones. Searching for information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions. The delusions of reference--tells, lucky charms, hunches and coincidences.
Bandwagon effect - Do things because smart money people do or believe the same, like playing Helmeuth starting hands, or walking the painted line of Sklansky's Theory of Poker or Doyle's Super System. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour. That's what I find so cool about my game--being able to fire three barrels with squadush. (Thank you Poker Stars Sit and Go's)
Déformation professionnelle - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one’s own T.O.E., time on earth; assuming things that have similar traits are likely to be identical; forgetting any broader point of view. Past experience and feedback loops can make you Hola Lupe.
Disconfirmation bias -. We tend to use the information that is most handy when we make decisions/predictions. The path of least resistence mashed up with thin slicing.
Focusing effect - prediction bias occurring when players place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.
Hyperbolic discounting - the tendency for players to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are.
Impact bias -Our minds are suited for solving problems related to our survival, rather than being optimised for poker decisions. Players overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.
Information bias - Seeking TMI, too much information, even when it cannot affect action. Try playing in the dark, or blind---With less information to be processed and filtered, the brain assigns higher priority to the information that it does receive.
Neglect of probability - the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. Expected Value and Variance---weighing all the possible outcomes, weighting the more likely outcomes, and coming to a conclusion---play a big part in the decision process. There is therefore, never a certain prescribed way to play a hand, just a way to think about them.
Mere exposure effect - the tendency for players to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them. If it's not broke, break it!
Omission bias - The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).
Outcome bias - the tendency to judge things on their outcome, and not on their process. Over weighing and overeacting to a bad beat-- the most recent information or circumstances.
Planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. It has taken me ten years to become an overnight Holdem success!
Post-purchase rationalization - the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
Pseudocertainty effect - the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.
Selective perception - the tendency for expectations to affect perception. (Gamblers Fallacy)
Status quo bias - the tendency for players to like things to stay relatively the same.
Von Restorff effect - Purple Cows and items that “stands out like a sore thumb” have a tendency to be more likely to be remembered than other items.
Zero-risk bias - preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
A Post Without Image

Poker is not a form of gambling---but gambling is a form of ---loose-aggressive--- poker that payed off last night night at The Rio WSOP Final Table.

SPOILER ALERT: We have a winner---The face of poker now belongs to young Peter Eastgate.
The stakes were high -and when the stakes are high, it's not about winning, it's about excelling, making good decisions.

All gambling involves betting, but not all bets are gambling. It depends on how much control you have over the outcome and how much luck you think you have at the moment. Both players were aggressive and poker rewards aggression, but NLH is also a game of domination and Eastgate owned Demidov throughout the match.

After 104 hands of heads-up action dominated almost entirely by the 22-year-old Dane, Eastgate turned the wheel straight. The Russian Demidov had two pair--so his money was going all in.

Peter won the bracelet and a first prize totaling $9,152,416 becoming the youngest-ever WSOP Main Event-winner in the process, ending Phil Hellmuth's reign as the previously youngest (Age24) to win the Main Event.

did a great job, providing the live audio feed for the WSOP Final Table between Eastgate and Demindov. (Nick Geber and current BLUFF Magazine cover girl LaceyJones) The collective hunch among the pros and Joes was that it was anybody's game. The Anglo/Dane screen named Isser, however, proved that poker is a game of money played with cards- His universal tell to Demidov was betting!

Eastgate was betting on positive expectations and predictable outcomes.—either he held unbeatable cards or made Deminov believe he did , that’s a skill set that pays out 10x over time. Eastgate's bets were declaration that said to Demidov, " I have a better hand than you---Find out if it the truth or a lie. Call me or fold". Demidov act accordingly to continually reward the Dane.... Unless he had the stone cold nuts, when he bet, he wanted Demidov to think he did , and fold.

It will be interesting to the see the Broadcast coverage tonight on ESPN , when the hole cards are revealed with the lipstick camera to see if Peter was telling lies and getting paid, or just getting hit with the deck.

Demidov played his way to the Final table with no cards: Poker without cards is called bluffing. If you never get called, you can never lose. Eastgate called! Yet if the right people don't show up, the right game doesn't either. Eastgate took the edge off the edge of Ivan's Bluffs, having the gift of connecting to the field of awareness that exists behind the con in the confidence of the bluffs.

Bluffing was a big part of both their games since most players miss the flop 33% of the time, heads up is really a game of chicken. Without the right game, however, the right people don't show up. Joe The Plumber (Dennis Phillips) busted out, and mono e mono, an I for an I left both players with blind aggression. Eastgate, however was betting with the best hands; Demidov, buffing with the worst. Stack Size played into it, and early on Ivan was crippled. It was the closest Ivan would l ever get to feeling like he was playing Russian roulette, with Eastgate channeling his Christopher Walken inner Deer Hunter.

Ivan wasn't t a bad player when he fired his blanks, and his bluffs got called. He only had to win a fraction of the time to net a profit. Sklansky's (game)Theory of poker points out that you cannot play optimally unless you include bluffing into your game. Yet, The more Ivan's bluffs mattered, the harder they were to pull off because they were, after all, bluffs.

Moneymaker Effect? What effect did it have on you?

You have to be a somebody in poker before you can be a nobody-Chris Moneymaker was a nobody, a 27 year old accountant who had the zen mind beginner's mind of a champion, won $2.5 million in the Big Game with a $20 Buck satellite "lotto ticket". Nowadays, Chris is a Somebody--- a Pokerstars Spokesmodel who hasn't won a major tournament since his WSOP 2003 anomaly. Check please.

Either raise or fold, but rarely call.
Always aspire to be a nobody in poker. A nobody bets only when the odds are favorable. Gamblers are somebody--They splash the pot, make loose calls , bluff off their stack and bet money at unfavorable odds and eventually lose it all. A nobody cannot lose; he eventually wins all the money that "somebody" players risk. Most Somebodies idea of a good lay down is to flat call. Bluff raising for him is out of the question

NLH is a safety net for somebody gamblers. Not knowing what he is doing because he doesn’t know what he is doing—shields him from his own efforts to lose! These kind of players back into a lot of hands and split pots., and generaly confuse nobody players.

Zero Sum and Then Some

Serious poker is a POSITIVE -SUM GAME. Everybody gets what they want or need. The game itself helps the pie expand. And in (game) theory everybody simultaneously wins in a positve sum game. Yet if Poker is all about reading game theory books and learning ABC theroies and systems, then the games are really like used bookstores---dead information. The game sure doesn't look like a used bookstore, thanks to dealing with everywhere--- ubiquitious internet poker. Nobody players routinely make more cash than people who work in used bookstores!

The Hockey Strike is a negative sum event- NEGATIVE-SUM GAMES are games in which both sides lose. This represents the height of irrationality to positive-sum players, but it proves a surprisingly durable choice of game-players. Pull the grenade and blow us both up. Smashmouth Poker is a less deadly version of combat, and therefore a good way to practice for it if you are out to have a good time and fully expect to lose all your money that you brought to the table that night.

While the Zambonis' sat idle, the strike created new programming slots for ESPN's niche "sports" like Poker-and fueled the Moneymaker Effect: and you know how that affected all our games---more AQ verses small pockets(races), more bad beats and suckouts by DONKS winning, not by what they knew, but what was absent from their game---like fear, experience and regret.

Broke Back Poker-A Guaranteed income for life.

Without the right game, the right people don't show up.

Raising with good hands, pairs. Calling with draws and throwing away junk. Yea, I wanna play with these guys because Karaoke Poker can solve any problem for which a solution is known to exist . Many still sing the patience, tight-is-right ABC by the book style of play--that's an even money scenerio-- You don’t play to break even, you play to break backs.

When weak players stay in the game, they use luck and because of the nature of NLH, can win buckets of money in the short run. Just remember they are only borrowing the chips from you.
Feeling lucky and going into a casino is like feeling athletic and going to a sports bar---You can depend on the rabbit's foot for luck, but it didn't help the rabbit.

When playing people who feel lucky---Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move when you are certain you have the stone cold nuts or at least, great odds. If you get drawn out on the river by this kind of player, be assured he will go broke chasing to the river the next few hands he plays. All players are equally good, it's their play that is bad: A little past playing good is playing badly. You beat bad players and bluff good ones. Bads call too often and rarely fold. The longer you have been playing, the "smarter" you get. Experience rich and technique poor players-smart players---are easier to bluff, because of this fact. They are usually paying attention to the action.

Suited cards like Q2,K4 are cows---units of chaos. Pump 'em or Dump em.

Just put yourself to the simple test--would I play them if they weren't suited; if no dump it. If yes, pump it. The best way to control chaos is at the beginning of an event. Folding is an invisible form of winning. Reducing your risk, not taking chances on it. Any pre-flop hand can be folded—a big pair can go from pretty to pretty ugly unless you isolate, and have a heads up situation. A hand can be favored individually. And a loser collectively (Family pots). There are no chips for second place.

As the game becomes looser, the value of suited connectors and suited starting hands becomes higher, and the monster starting hands like QQ and AK goes down. There is no strict rule for acceptable staring hands. The more people that see the flop, the less likely big hand will hold up.Usually they end in a showdown, and a complete hand-straight or flush---but if the board pairs, you are drawing to the nuts, a full house.

You have to be a somebody in poker before you can be a nobody. A somebody has mystical feelings, overconfidence, invincibility and in general letting luck short cirucit their mind from the heavy lifting of thinking. A nobody just wants to make good decisions.

Learn to play poker in ten years—What’s the rush?

It takes years to become an overnight success at poker, and a lifetime to make it all look simple. In the Life, Liberty and The Pursuit of a fast buck, you have to assume players know what they want to do with their money--it's their privilege to bet or gamble with their money.

Never complain never explain. DON'T TAP THE AQUARIUM--It will disturb the fish--the guys who got their poker Ph.D. from ESPN.

- - -- by Hotel @nyware»
A Post Without Image

"You’re asking for trouble if you halt a marathon at the 25th mile to allow everyone to rest and then run the last 1.2 miles as a sprint" Ylon Schwartz

The so-called “November Nine” left the Rio in July largely unknown to John Q Public, and they return the same way for today's last mile of the tournament, which carries a $9.1 million top prize. The true winner however, is Harrah's, who got an interest free-120 day- loan of The final table's prize money of$24 Million.

Player's should be compensated by the casino for this delay, worth another $100 K a piece. By the way, where is all that money being kept anyway, in escrow?

PokerStars has the rights to 6 of the 9 players at the final table, they are in control of effectively 66% of the prize pool. Are the six going to gang up and play against the rest? This is the real DreamTeam Poker not the one at the Hard Rock Casino this weekend!

The first player to take abuse in the largest sit and go in poker history will bethe big stack, the chip leader: The Human Hangover, AKA The Piñata, Dennis Phillips. He's tricky and uses the Ropa Dope strategy. Ali used the Ropa Dope on George Foreman, the hardest puncher in boxing history, and won and knocked him out. I have seen Dennis play in St Louis. Don't underestimate him, even if he loses most of his stack. I have seen him make some big lay downs.
The best way to win The Power ball of Poker the WSOP --- is to fold more. There's so much fold equity in the beginning. Ed Reif's WSOP Advice Today.They are all deep and the levels are long. I expect a long session, but it’s poker; anything could happen.

My Prediction The heads up match will be --Peter Eastgate, the youngest one at the table--- against guys with the most Poker Courage:Dennis Phillips (Joe The Plumber) or Ivan Demidov.

Either raise or fold, but rarely call.

Raise more than call and fold more than raise. PROS verses JOES
The cult of the amateur feels that calling is an option on the value scale between betting and raising; actually it shows weakness and sets you up as a target to lose money. Folding in this case, is the invisible win, and a way to save bets (money). What no one else is saying about NLH is that this a fringe benefit about playing with the JOES, they will call you down, and, furthermore, they don't know the best kept secret of No Limit Holdem: It is a game of position.

Calling is bad for so many reasons--- You lose control of the hand. You create a weak image for yourself. You don’t drive others out of the pot. You invite bets and bluffs. You become a target on the turn and the river. You let drawing hands have the potential to “bad beat” you. Most people refuse to fold and calling down to the river is their bizarre way of folding.

Unless you are slowplaying the NUTS, and setting a trap, your opponents have nothing to fear with a flat call or a smooth call…you send that "I am weak" message…unless you step in it and suck out. That’s the safety net of holdem. It’s always there Chess +luck. Anyone can get lucky once 100% of the time.

If you bet or raise you give yourself extra ways to win. Good things happen when you bet—You could take the pot down right there, or lose some people and build the pot, so you could fire another bullet on the next round when they miss, making it expensive to draw out on you

Poker rewards aggression. Your table image street cred goes up .You make opponents react to you and you take control of the table—the name of the game is a game of domination. NLH is a game of position, and Early Position is the exception to the rule---you simply won’t play a lot of hands, and if you do, you will find yourself checking more because all eyes are on you to act first.

POSITION DETREMINES which starting hands to play and WHEN to play. (10 9 suited, small pockets A9 are great first money hands from middle or late position, but go down in value from first)

So easy even a caveman can do it…Bludgeon the better with a raise. It sends a message. Like hitting a donkey over the head with a two-by-four. Raising with ATC, any two cards, in late position, usually gets the blinds out. If you allow them to limp in, they could have anything. DON’T GO BROKE in an unraised pot: because in an unraised pot anything can happen!

Buying the button—betting or raising hoping that people between you and the button will fold, can give you positional advantage, allowing you to act last.

Playing out of your comfort zone. Every bet is a big decision. At higher stakes, many people know the value of position. Fortunately, it can make you routine and predictable. In this case you should sit to the right of the money—That's where it tends to go, you get money from the right and give money to the left. This is called “Sitting behind the money”. This is because money flows in a clockwise direction. The golden rule---the ones with the gold make the rules will be acting before you not after!


There are 169 possible starting hands in NLH. Are you capable of playing everyone of them? Only 1 in four of them is capable of being played on any given Sunday to the flop.

The value of any two cards---even monsters goes up or down after the flop--Why? Because those two hole cards represent 28% of your total hand, after the flop that brings you to around 70%. The rule of thumb: if you need more than one card to imporve your hand dump it- or bluff and pump it. Therefore, you have to thin the field. Going heads up with a big pair against suited connectors is a 60-40 split in your favor, but guess what, you have two outs, and he has at least 15--straight, flush, straight-flush, pairing his whole cards.

Against 9 random hands in a pot, AA is vulnerable--a winner only 34% of the time, and Pocket Kings, the same holds true. You want to isolate the loosy goosey guys who play Ace Rag with your raisey daisey; isolate the maniacs who splash pots, and isolate the weak players. Anytime you are up against inexperience, you are the favorite.

The single most important mistake most players make is playing too many starting hands. It could be impatience, a carry over from low limit no-foldem games, ATC, any two cards push and pray, hoping you'll hit the flop. You should fold 60% of your hands--Why, because it costs something to play. If it costs nothing to play, play every hand! but it doesn't...

The cost of playing your hand is determined by position. If you are in early position what is the cost? You don't really know because you are first to act. It will at least cost you one bet, but the other players have yet to act. It could cost 2x, 3x all-in.

After all, you play poker, you show up, you want to "gamble", to get and give action, to play. Just remember, you didn't come to the game to play bad cards, but more importantly, you didn't come to play out of position.

I remember talking with Daniel Negreanu--He refered to late position as his "Office". That meant he meant business--where his revenue stream flowed and his profit center was derived. It was interesting to hear him say that, instead of AA, KK, a particular starting hand. He switched things up for me, and I began to realize the value of position.
Paper or Plastic--Cash verses Tournament Play

For the beginner, everything is even money, when you don't know any better. Replacing that with true odds is the goal. There is one goal and many pathways. There is the psycho path way, playing like a Kramer maniac.---the push and pray NLH way, hoping to hit the flop big. There is the rocky road, playing a tight-is-right, the Jerry game of counting your outs---the number of unseen cards that will give you the best hand---the NUTS!
There is wise and there is otherwise. Generally speaking if the FLOP gives you 10 or more outs--go all the way to the river, regardless of the number of opponents in the pot.
If your draws have less than 9 outs 2 handed, that will yield you a negative result more often than not.
A Multi-handed raised pot with six or more outs =profit.

ADVICE THAT DOESN'T WORK IN FREE ROLLS:If a guy has 20k behind him, and you are first to act and bet 6K. He is really betting 20K if he calls your 6K.(the implied turn and river bets) You bet 6K. he bets 20K That is the threat of NLH, the all-in threat. PUT THE COMMITMENT ON HIM.
In The Beginning...The best way to win more is to fold more! Hand selection is really something to consider; so is position. Playing too many starting hands is the How Not to Do It way..When it is raised in front of you-Your mantra should be "I'm looking for a way to fold this AJ offsuit.

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