Archive for 2008
In the United States Of Unconscious gambling, poker without money is an opinion; and opinions about poker are just shovels we use to dig our own graves: because if you are not playing poker but thinking about playing poker you are already dead.
24 Hour Casinos-I Don't Have Time For That "Get Rich Click"
Poker Zombies who are playing 24/7 just don’t like being here in the USA all the time. Now you're gambling from home and can lose the house! while thinking you're more "in control", it becomes part of everyday living.
The original name of this blog---Hotel @nyware is about location neutral internet gambling. Playing online poker insinuates its way in into our daily lives deeply and invisibly, whether by laptop, desktop or phone. Something incredible happens with poker which is never put down or can always be picked up. Gambling is always on, always reliably available. Always at the edge of "creative" impulse(s), Poker is as bad as any drug.
In this case, poker has nothing to do with money, and everything to do with a state of mind, a sensation of "beating the system", of feeling a winner, a way to find out if life is "gonna go the way I want" because I don't want to fail.
In fact, it's not the money you go back for, it's the feeling that you are a winner, not the state of Nevada but the consistent state of mind that, "Yes, I can now beat life...and finally do the things I want to do." The funny thing is life is alway on our side, is always interested in our personal development. We never beat life, we participate in it....and the system helps us grow.
Paper or Plastic-America's scariest addiction just gets scarier
Played with buttons, clicks and phony chips, many people naturally underestimate the amount of money they're actually playing with.
Online Poker Rooms(Oasis of the Zombies) are the in to your sane, a kind of voluntary madness. The surest way of getting nothing from something. The road less traveled-the psycho path! It's pain for sale, self punishment. Yet everythime you turn your computer on, this could be the day you win a big tournament.
"I'm doing online course work at Full Tilt and Poker Stars. I'm $80,000 credits short of graduating. You see, Money is life's report card"...Anything that isn't poker is a waste of your time. You skip classes and call in sick to work. Get the picture.
Growing old isn't optional, growing up is. You(th) can outgrow poker and not slip up--just by avoiding slippery places--- casinos, online and live ones.
Playing Holdem without a "license"...Look Mom, no trusted third party. Home isn't where your heart is, it's where your compute is.
Yet, what are the odds that poker will go away forever---You might have a better chance to do well after many types of cancer than you have of recovering from Texas Holdem addiction, or as I like to call it, "Cardlust"--- an all consuming default mode of thinking about poker and uncontrollable craving, like Lay's Potato Chips...I bet you can't eat (play) just one (Hand).
Hooked or Hooked Up
Behavior has consequences, but Poker "Pros" (addicts) don't care about consequences. Biology is biography (see my other post My brain made me re-buy) and if you are addicted to anything you are addicted to everything. More than that, the way you do anything is the way you do everything. With time, with money, with opportunity, the planets lineup with availability (live and online Full Tilt, Poker Stars, games) and exposure (ESPN WSOP, GSN High Stakes, WPT World Poker Tour). You're hooked up.
When you say "I messed up", no big deal. When you say " I messed up again" the behavior speaks louder than the words: continually gambling in the face of negative consequences and the desire to continue (something you know is bad for you)---takes it from a habit, a want, to a need. You're hooked.
What's the engine, and who's doing the steering?Our brain likes to dupe us into believing we are thinking when actually we are just rearranging our bad habits, a mind over money logic verses emotion farce. One thing for sure, dopamine receptors are the gas, your brain's own inhibitory systems act as the brakes.
You gotta be a somebody before you can be a nobody.
Calling poker a sport is like calling bald a hair color. I am done with this male pattern madness---It's lame, all about lose, lose of money, lose of health, lose of relationships, lose of things.
Go within or go without...more pain for sale. You can only quit once--I am quitting, among other things, second-hand smoking once and for all.
Time to consider writing the only kind of book that makes sense, one I want to read: The Sex Of Poker-How to turn your bargain with chaos into a gambling lobotomy. Why stop at 12 steps.
poker addiction gambling addiction
Gambling isn’t as scandalous as writing about it.You can’t be a poker blogger and not think about addiction. It’s like not thinking about death because it lasts too long. More than that, there is very little difference biologically between what is going inside the head of a drug addict and a poker "pro". There is no shame, however, in being a Poker Pro, only in still being one, once you realize your brain made you re-buy.
Furthermore, as the selfish brain fears death and looks for predictable experiences, poker is a great placebo that hijacks the brain with a predictable surprise: card players are surprised if they win and surprised if they lose. see: Poker= f(dopamine flow); Money= happiness in the United States of Unconsciousness
It's not winning that makes a winner, but losing. The excitement is not from the winning, it's avoiding the disaster, because you're flirting with it every day. It's not like every game you play is the Super Bowl, but every game is the Playoffs.
Let's drill down and go even further: Poker is not unique from Crack. It is crack. The way the system works is if we get rewarded in a surprising way, dopamine is released and that kind of alerts the brain how that is going to happen again.
There really is no way for your brain to differentiate, between a love affair, or the behavior of gambling, ie.the pursuit of a fast buck or for that matter, pursuing a drug. When run amok, drugs, alcohol (Substances) and sex and poker (behavior) are not unique "moral" challenges, but brain diseases.
The disease of poker is especially destructive because it affects the very brain areas that people need to play good poker---thinking straight, applying good judgment, and making good decisions for their lives (It messes with Executive Function, seeking a short-term gain at the expense of a large long-term lose). Gambling thinking is magical thinking, the selfish brain competing for your finite resources and instead of mindfulness, you get mindlessness.
Just as in "diseases" like diabetes or asthma, The Poker affliction can be managed through proper treatments and individual responsibility.It's a brain disease,and a consumer choice. It doesn't show a lack of will power, for even the mantra "Everything In Moderation" provide an excuse for (the) bad behavior.
What is a habit but self-discipline? Yet, consider you are not playing because you like to; you are doing it because you have to, especially if your playing poker usurps all other "normal" activities, like sleeping,eating and drinking.
The Demographics of Overconfidence--- Beating America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players
Men Behaving Badly or My Brain Made Me Re-buy
You gotta be willing to die, however, in order to live, to be a great player: to Go All In with the best or bluff with the worst. Consequently, There's no such thing as good and bad math in holdem: 1+1=infinity, but they are empty infinities of bliss and death, an abyss of divine enjoyment. This is the Sex of Poker, your bargain with chaos. Are your ready to shuffle up and deal with it?
You see, Poker Doesn't think. It is an infinite game;the overall phenomenon of NLH has no end. It is always a frontier, always on the edge .The rules are simple but the dynamics of the game are ruthless: it is designed to F with you. For instance: If playing against 5 other opponents there are more than 9.7 trillion possible hand combinations that could come up.
Once in a while there's a night when you get exactly where you're trying to go. Magic. Then you chase that memory for a while. (Nostalgia) But precisely because you so want to get there it becomes harder and harder. If you think long, you think wrong, it make your game weaker because Poker doesn't think.
Like you(th), poker is best understood in retrospect: from within the experience, you cannot see it for what it is. see: Feel Athletic, go to a sports bar; feel lucky, a casino.
Denial is a River in Vegas
The future is not what it used to be---neither is taking risks --thanks to Wall Street's Viagra up and down math and after math, even number atheists and non "investors" get the picture. The market cannot be controlled and neither can a deck of cards.
Poker is not a form of gambling---but gambling is a form of poker
Most market theories and models assume “investors” are rational decision makers who act in their own best interests. But, in reality, our investment brain often drives us to do things that are quite illogical, but make perfect emotional sense.
Think of the ipod shuffle mode----the shuffle mode has an algorithm that randomizes the selection of songs that your IPod can select. Any 'pattern' you discern from what songs your IPod selects is illusory. Just because you lost five times in a row, doesn’t mean you are “due” to win one. Yet, Motion Creates Emotion...not progress.
I’ll talk about Discounting The Future in this post; a mental bias that affects all sorts of risky behavior---from the paradox of smoking cigarettes in the healthy conscious USA to the fact that more people in America die from over eating rather than starvation, fast food for a fast world. But let's move from the United States of Unconscious eating,Your brain on French Fries to Unconscious Gambling, your brain on Poker and Decision
The quicker you go, the longer it takes---That's why Instant Gratification Takes Too Long. Perform the Psychological Judo and Procrastinate NOW! because Infinite Patience brings immediate results to your game.
The Impatience of Patience
There is Mr. Right and Mr Right NOW---Players very robustly want instant gratification right now, and want to be patient in the future. Instead of inspiring caution, when we risk money, our brains' typical response to this uncertainty is to sharply reduce the importance of the future in our decision-making, an effect known in Behavioral Finance as hyperbolic discounting.
Most Rounders know hand values and preflop strategy, but post flop is where a bit of hyperbole comes in. This irrational affliction is ubiquitous in the DNA of grinders; a mind over money problem,er, I mean challange, valuing imminent hands over future ones.
Poker's outward simplicity-The ability to affect the outcome is present, unlike roulette. If no one sees any cards, the cards did not play a role in the outcome. Thus, the outcome was determined by the betting of the players, clearly a process of skill or strategy. If he checks bet. If he bets raise. If he re-raises, go All -In. Put the commitment on him; last in money creates the edge instead of First Money Vigorish. see First in Money is so pre 9 Eleven
There is no YES in Yesterday, because of the luck factor and the fact that poker is situational, you don't learn from you mistakes, you un-learn from them.
Consequently, The future isn't what it used to be because it is perfectly reasonable to "think" you will suck out and get lucky. (That makes it a thinking problem, not a gambling one). In fact, those who think about the past (scared money) have no future. You see, Too much respect for money, therefore, makes you a bad no limit holdem player. This game is sick, isn't it? Check please.
Spending Your Derelict You(th) at the Poker table
A little past playing good is playing badly.
"There is no shame in being a poker pro, only in staying one" Ed Reif Wise and Otherwise 2007
In order to open the Black Box up after your game crashes, there shouldn’t be any disconnect between what I’m doing and what I want to be doing...in the future...But on some level, there always is.
Forget about the degeneracy that surrounds poker. the addiction, drug and alcohol use, depression, and sleep deprivation. After all, Few things are harder to put up with than a good example--- If it wasn't for pimps, prostitutes, hustlers, gangsters there wouldn't be any No Limit Poker as we know it today.
It's like using Visa or MasterCard--- You(th)buy(s) things they can’t afford on a credit card, and as a result you get to buy less over the course of your lifetimes.
After all, Who thinks of saving for retirement when the urge to merge and spend is always on and ever present. Who thinks of Insurance? I am in the business of creating risk. Insurance protects me from risk, you're betting you're gonna lose, you're gonna get sick, you're gonna get in an accident. Nah, I'll bet on me, and fund the risk myself.
Putting some quo in your status or “But there’s Still A Chance”
If you ask people, ‘Which do you want right now, Vegetables or Pizza ?’ they say, ‘Pizza !’
But if you ask, ‘Which one a week from now?’ they will say, ‘Vegetables .’ Now we want Pizza , beer and cigarettes. In the future, we want to eat Vegetables , Vitamins, and drink Evian bottled water.
Likewise, you can always tell a poker player, but you can't tell them much---about holdem being a game of position, about holdem being a game of (selective) aggression, about folding 60% of your starting hands.
Ah, but you are going to need a compelling reason to fold more starting hands. As long as you remember your choices as better than they actually were (Using the past to predict the future), there's more pain for sale. (Your brain made you re- buy).
There is never a certain prescribed way to play a hand, just a way to think about them. I've had racks of chips only to be felted 14 hours later because instead of an attitude of gratitude, I personally have the Mick Jaggar Tumbling Dice "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing"soundtrack playing. There is no limit like no limit!
Holdem is too random to be left up to chance so you want to play against people who say, “But there’s still a chance” or better yet, “But they were suited!” Most players will gravitate towards low probability high payoff bets. Most players experience risk in the short-term thinking that money doesn’t grow on trees but trees grow to the sky.
To short circuit this kind of thinking, simply ask yourself, If they weren’t suited , would you still play them---Of Course not. Making decisions by accepting the default option-But they were suitedand There’s always Bob (Hope) is hopeless. Yet something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing.
Choosing Preferences over Outcomes
It's not success or failure only outcomes.It's not about winning or losing, but exceling and making good decisions in spite of the outcome! ER
Poker is, first and foremost, a game of managing resources, or if non are available, being resourceful. You can explain anything with preferences- For example “I always play 7 deuce unsuited”. It’s The Hammer. 7-2 off suit is considered the worst hand in Texas Hold'em. ... Because it is the worst, some players will play it for fun, and will continue to keep betting, even if they expect to lose This .Belief perseverance-that you can spike that one out, and get lucky is every where in Poker, the seductive NOW moment in the the game. It's becoming a routine observation.
This malignant optimism can create the happy accident-- you can get lucky 100% of the time....on any one hand.
This is a predictable surprise in holdem, the cost of doing "Business" are chips, and BAD BEATS are the overhead!
Playing holdem without a helmet
This is one of the secrets to Beating America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players:Most players are experience rich and technique poor. They most likely are gambling not betting. This is your demographic of"overconfidence", of magical thinking,Every Americon Gambler is only a hand away from a very humbling wake-up call.
Most people will choose preferences over outcomes. like playing Russian roulette and saying to yourself "You have a 5/6 chance of surviving. People sometimes select the choice they put less monetary value on. That is why calling to the river is a way of folding. The Cult of the amateur has drunk the kool-aid. The close choice of say, a heavy metal fan of Metalica verses Mozart Effect. The glass is not half full, it’s not big enough for gamblers. If you swim in the river, you drown in the river. Things don't even out with time, they even out with the number of hands you play against "fish" PS Don't tap the Aquarium, you'll scare the fish.
Every hand of poker is a series of risk/reward decisions. America's 92 Million Irrational Poker Players cannot always figure out what is in their best interest.
Money and risk are abstract, complex things. We act less rationally, less logically, and more emotionally when playing cards. When your left brain gets good at telling your right brain what to do, you even the score, and gain a competitive advantage.
Behvaioral Finance Mental Bias Poker Discounting The Future hyperbolic discounting decision-making Gambling
On any given hand, poker is about 85% luck and 15% skill, but over the course of thousands of hands, it is the reverse - 15% luck and 85% skill. See Poker's Pattern's Are Not Our Own
Mo' money is pissed away by players who know the right thing to do , but don't do it anyway. See My Brain Made Me Rebuy!
The Poker Universe always has the first move. There’s uncertainty with every hand? Yes, it’s always a coin flip, not always 50/50, sometimes 60/40. This is not rocket science. It's brain surgery. Give yourself a poker lobotomy with Behavioral Finance. see What you think is right is wrong with your game.
Behavioral finance can inform poker. Superlative performance is not just the ability to eliminate chance, but also to recognize opportunity, and, more importantly, when your LEFT brain gets good at telling your RIGHT brain what to do.
Holdem is too random to be left up to chance.When you treat No Limit Hold em as only a game of chance instead of skill, it is not a law of probability, it's a fact for games with negative expectations: Risk of ruin is 100%.---Have the best hand, the best draw, or get out.
In other words, know the 60/40 end of a proposition--- when to hold em and when to fold em--- when you have some competitive advantage over somebody else. Know when the odds are in your favor and bet, or know when the odds are not in your favor and get out of the way. You don't "invest", unless you have some competitive advantage.
Poker is a game of maximizing wins (when you have the best hand) and minimizing loss (when you don't have the best hand). In the last hundred hours of play I have had pocket aces 25+ times, and they held up about 80% of the time. This is really a rare incredible run. Although against a random hand, they do tend to hold up more. Still, if you know your opponent has them, and you're in a multi-way pot, suited connectors looks real good, because Pocket Aces is gonna push all-in with a continuation bet on the flop. So: DON'T BET DANGEROUS FLOPS IN MULTIWAY POTS. AA demands isolation.
worth raising, then it's probably not worth being in. You can save a lot of money in poker and in investing if you know when to say bye bye.
Note to self: A new investment trend: backing poker (players) . My “traders” are all poker players; in a nutshell, Hotel Anyware will provides the entire bankroll for a player and covers the player’s losses while keeping 50% of their winnings. Of course there is more to it: players have daily loss limits, minimum table-hour requirements and an exclusivity agreement.
By the end of this post, you'll have a better understanding of some of the anomalies (that's an S.A.T. bonus word) that Sklansky's Theory of Poker and Doyle's Super System have failed to explain. Warning: If you are over forty, please leave this blog because---The truth will set you free but first it will piss you off.
Poker without money is an opinion. I got my hunting license--I am the sharpshooter that comes down from the hill after the battle to shoot the wounded, in this case, the dead. I'll give it my best shot.
A is for Aces-- You(th) says “I want something new everyday.” and “I want to be surprised”. You(th) says, I'll play 3,4 suited , spot him the nuts and suck out.
Brunson may be the Godfather of Poker , keeping his friends close and his enemies closer, but Peter Eastgate, is The Geekfather, through the numbness of numbers, Peter picked up the pieces of everyone else's mathematical dust, connected the dots and won the WSOP main event.
YOU(th) sees that scared money is a misuse of imagination. You(th) hears the internet stutter of brick and mortar ABC players. You(th) feels that playing with more luck and less skill, is almost the right way to play NLH and (almost) the right way to play is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug.
Eastgate didn't just bring math to the game, he brought strategy, getting others to play with the cards he mentally dealt them. I like to call Eastgate's style of play, "Boiling the frog" In this case, infinite patience brought immediate results for Mr. Science.
The Geekfather knew that from his online experience--things don't even out with time, the even out with the number hands you have played. I'll get to Dennis Philips in a moment, the way he played Doyle's favorite hand "AK because it is so easy to throw away"....which is what Phillips did to cost him the championship, essentially crippling himself when he drew air on the flop and made a continuation bet only to be re raised with a bluff from Demidov, The Mini-Geekfather, shipping a huge stack of chips to the Russian.
Final Table-ist Scott Montgomery played Tom Dwan's version of New (North) Americon Geekfather Poker Club: Ba da bing ba da boom. He dared to be naive
We'll call it New (North)American Geekfather Poker because the word F_ck was taken.. Geekfather poker is anything You(th) could get away with!
If practice makes perfect, and nobody's perfect, then why practice? There is absolutely no substitute in NLH (No Limit Holdem) than for a genuine lack of preparation.
Geekfather Poker is not a "A-ha" experience, it is more of a "holy-shit" experience. Montgomery was no miraculous exception
Calling poker a sport is like calling bald a hair color. Montgomery's style of play is not a game, it's a concussion! In fact, the bad beats Scott gave his opponents left them with no other option but The Big "Oh Well" Shrug a WTF, "That's Poker"; and "It's only a game", the lesser known, "I don't have a dream" speech.
Most Geeks like Scott, are experience rich and technique poor. Home isn't where their heart is, it's where their computer is; Multi tabling at Pokerstars and FullTilt.
Without an Internet connection, it's (like) having a seizure or a mild stroke--Online poker makes You(th) more.
Something incredible happens with the availability 24/7 of online poker and the ubiquitous exposure of WPT, GSN and WSOP ESPN coverage: Poker is never put down — is always on, always reliably available. SHIFT happens---A collection of situations you haven't played yet; of the things you don't know. there is a massive collection of unknowledge, the anti-hands that contain all the hands that may still change your poker life.
The secret of staying poker-young isn't lying about your age, it's havng bandwidth-, an internet connection and using online gaming sites. It brings a 10x exponential edge to the nth degree to a live game.
B is for Cajones--Take em out of your purse or grow a set.
Godfathers Raise ATC (any two cards) only to be re-raised by Geekfathers also holding a range of hands from 88 to A 10, only to be re-shoved back over the top of them by uber Geeks.That’s The Power Of New Americon Poker—the language of betting, a slang that rolls up its sleeves, spits in the street, screams strength possibly more than any other and gets the work done. Tells Don’t Tell – Geekfather's Do with the language of their betting. And it's not really in the DNA of ABC players to really do business with the Geekfather's. Live Cash game specialists speak with a internet stutter.
The first Rule About New Americon Geeklfather Poker Club, Don't talk about New Americon Poker Club. The second rule, tip your dealer, the third:The surest way to win a huge pot in NLH is to spot'em the nuts and suck out! When this happens: Hate the win, not the winner. I call this, Making the right mistake! The number one thingw e hate about the game we love--NL Holdem.
Playing 'in the dark': betting that Godfather's DON'T have the cards rather than that they do is a strategy, not THE strategy. That's Durr's Zero Gravity thinking.Creating rather than responding has less to do with originality and more to do with the unexpected.
An Aggressive game is a game of strategy and deception. A passive game is one where money flows from bad to good players. A loose game is a game of money and odds; a tight one is a battle for the antes. This is all just karaoke Poker, a cheap imitation of Stu Unger.
It was Ready, Fire, Aim---unloading three bullets--- flop, turn AND river, into a pot, holding Squadush-"nothing".The Stu Unger three-barrel bluff worked throughout Scott's tournament
C is for Card Lust---It's about the juice,where people and bits of information meet.
Poker is a game of situations, like milk, with an expiration date stamped right on the carton. There are no perfect strategies. Poker history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme!
It's not so much about "counting your outs" and "folding AK in a raise, re-raised pot"-- that cause-effect relationship stuff. It's more about the anti-poker game--situations. A collection of situations you haven't played yet; of the things you don't know. there is a massive collection of unknowledge,the anti-hands that contain all the hands that may still change your poker life.
This is the wake up call for ABC Phil's, the by-the- book players. The so-called new ways to play holdem are the old ones heated up in a microwave for 15 seconds. You see, Poker Doesn't think. It is an infinite game;the overall phenomenon of NLH has no end. It is always a frontier, always on the edge.
Everything we think we know about tournament poker is changing, so we really know nothing.
The Power of New Americon Poker is about being the last in the pot. It too can be an extremely effective way of accumulating chips in spite of your hole cards, not because of them.
- First in vigorish is Dan Harrington’s concept. Being the first player to bet, "creates" the edge of being the first to put your chips into the middle of a pot. OK.
- Sklansky’s old school calls it The Gap Concept ---“you need a better hand to call a raise with than you would need to open the betting yourself”. Sure.
Some were good at living through these three things, even if it killed them:
2. The players you are confronting
3, Your Chip Stack
First in Redux---Last is the new first
Gain insight into some of the underlying reasons and biases that cause some players (Including yours truely) to behave irrationally (and often against our best interests). This new found knowledge will give you an edge when it comes to making poker financial decisions.
When you ASSuME you make an ASS out of U and ME--One of the most basic instincts is the assumption that players are rational "Moneymakers" who seek to increase life, liberty and the pursuit of a fast buck. Adam Smith's "rational self interest" , the grip of the invisable hand isn't so tight, because it leaves out emotions and other extraneous factors, when it comes to making economic choices.
Reality at the poker table is a collective hunch where motion creates emotion.Poker plays, not like a sport, but a concussion. In a New York minute, an ACME anvil pancakes you, and then a split second later, you’re expanded - accordion-style - back to normal, like some tempurpedic mattress. It’s a formula of ins and outs, need and speed, aggravation and acceleration
The "Rational self interest" assumption doesn't reflect how people behave in the real world. The fact is people frequently behave irrationally. It's called tilt.Everyday Players enjoy the risk associated with winning; and are for the most part, risk averse--they don't want to lose---and when they do, you can be sure TILT is not far behind.
Our brain is the most powerful computer. When on tilt, our brain is the most powerful broken computer . Tilt makes us sub-optimal for evaluating rewards, sizing up risks and calculating probabilities. Your brain on poker and decision: Your bankroll increases when the LEFT brain gets good at telling the RIGHT brain what to do. How does it help to know that you're literally "of two minds"? The Limbic RIGHT and Analytic LEFT.
Consider how many people buy in to the WSOP at 10Kin the hope of making the final table From a purely logical standpoint, it does not make sense to play the tournament when the odds of winning are overwhelming against the player. Despite this, thousand of people buy in, turning the Wimbledon of Poker into a carnival game, The Powerball of Poker.
When faced with a decision, if a player is given two equal choices, one expressed in terms of possible gains and the other in possible losses, people would choose the gain alomost every time. The average Joe can't make lay downs. If he has trips or top two pair, and there is a flush or a straight on the board. His money is going in, and you'll get payed off. This is considered "lose averse" not "risk averse". Since gambling is risky behavior and everybody is there to gamble. I like to call this Stone Age Poker.
I am about to go against my mantra "Don't tap the aquarium" !
A fish is the last to know it is in the water, and there is a greatpoker shift coming that is seperating the fish from the sea.
The biology of fear for Homo Economicus is about running away from saber tooth tigers, and trying to live past your twentieth birthday. That impulse to avoid lose is so strong.There is a little piece of neanderthal in everyone's game that responds primitively to certain poker situations.
Caveman Fred has been hard-wired by evolution to have a malignant optimism and bullish outlook on things. Fred suffers from an incorrect interpretation of statistics (Gamblers Fallacy). Fred also has an irrational tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses (lose-averse) and even experiences more pain with a lose than pleasure from a gain (Prospect Theory); choosing a small reward that arrives soon as opposed to a larger reward that arrives later (risk-averse). The future is uncertain.Why wait?
Under the influence of powerful Flintstone emotions and drives, players often end up doing the opposite of what they think is best for themselves, even at the moment of acting. No matter how much we evolve as players, we're still capable of going "Yabadabadoo"!
Put pressure on our Fred —and he responds -- with a rush of adrenaline and the urge to fight or flee. Those survival impulses are hardwired into the oldest layers of all of our brains. Emotions like these can damage our game not to mention devastate our bankroll . When we give in to our old-brain reflexes, we'll probably regret it.
When we feel under attack, we experience a visceral response that may lead us down the primitive path. If we feel shamed, we may withdraw, like the caveman taking flight.(fold) If we feel angry, we might lash out and fight.(Call/Go over the top all-in with marginal holdings).
All behavioral biases have some evolutionary reasons for existing and it's very tough to overcome those deep-rooted impulses! So here’s the Neural Poker Challange--- we have two systems for reacting to risk–a primitive intuitive system and a more advanced analytic system–and they’re operating in parallel. And it’s hard for the neocortex to contradict the amygdala.
Bamm! Bamm! Beat- you -over -the- head- with -a -club- smash-mouth poker is motivated by "red" emotions -- anger, fear, greed – and by "green" ones --confidence and enthusiasm. Its not a question of if, but when, will our greens and reds light up our game.
The empathy gap is the difference between how we behave in "hot'' states---those of anxiety, courage, fear; and ''cold'' states of even-keeled calm. Our empathy gap impacts our thoughts and behaviors to the point where we cannot seem to predict how we will behave in a hot state when we are in a cold state.
Putting the Odds back into the God(fathers)
You're feeling on edge, but is the fear nothing to fear but devolutionary fear itself? Have you felt this way before? How intense is the feeling? Understanding the f.e.a.r., the false information appearing as real. It is key to getting control. After all, nothing real can be threatened, nothing unreal exists, Herein lies the peace of God
Identify the cause of the feeling. What is the source of it? Trace the feeling back to its source. Explore a way out by feeling the fear and doing anyway---that's where your game expands
I dared to do something different and my poker game grew larger. For me, it was Monday's Fulltilt- Stu Unger- three -barrel- stone -cold bluff I pulled off. It was energizing, a peak experiences much like I had as a track athlete at Comsewogue High School.
I lose money frequently, but in small amounts, and make money rarely, but in large amounts. I am a crisis hunter. You can't avoid crisis in NLH, you must be in a perpetual one that you create. Get lucky or bluff was the selective aggression I used, and poker rewards not only infinite patience, but selective aggression.
Give Yourself A Poker Lobotomy
It's not so much about "counting your outs" and "folding AK in a raise, re-raised pot"-- that cause-effect relationship stuff. It's more about the anti-neuro-poker game--situations. A collection of situations you haven't played yet; of the things you don't know. there is a massive collection of unknowledge,the anti-hands that contain all the hands that may still change your poker life.
The Sex Of Poker logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know. I considered that many of my Jackpots and big hands were caused and accelerated by their being unexpected.---of me being an anti-gambler. The upshot is that:knowledge leads to action but lack of knowledge can also lead to action.
The “Open Source” world that everybody is smarter than anybody, this is the NEW Herd mentality. WSOP Survivorship Bias-We see the winners who cash and learn from them, while forgetting the huge unseen herd of railbirds -losers. who were making all the right mistakes.
A poker game is not static. It's a dynamic, living organism that changes from moment to moment. You have to respond to those changes. You have to be the change you want to see . . In the RW(Real World) change is seen as some “thing” built to last. Would you rather have a TEMPORARY change to your game that lasts as long as it is useful, or rather a LASTING change that continues to last far beyond any limits of usefulness.
Players underestimate, on average, the probability and impact of improbable events. Going completely broke is consistently unexpected, but highly likelyin cash games. Buying into a poker game , unlike buying a car, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?
Nevertheless, when it comes to NLH, what you don’t know is far more relevant than what you do know. Consider that many huge hands can be caused and sped up by their being unexpected, that case eight on the river for a suck out, a four card flush free roll. That is why after rerading Doyle and Sklansky's books, I became more and more aware of the shortcomings in these conventional "systemns" and Theories as they relate to people's poker behaviors.
The Winner's Curse
Hate the win, not the winner, the game , not the player. Short-term winners believe they are good players, and thus don't make changes the anticipation of consequences---this type of behavior has consequences-Nothing fails like success. A broken clock is right twice a day---and because of the huge luck factor in poker, you can win lots of pots(not always chips).
Where Attention Goes, Chips Flow-- When bad things happen to nice starting hands.
My mental accounting anchor of AJ=Bad Beat. Under mental accounting, I live a personal "storyline " concerning my history with each an every AJ I have ever played , not unlike having a personal Monica relationship with each AJ because I cannot get it through my thick skull that the loses-they are imaginary. It is not about winning or losing. It is about exceling.
A behavioral game theory approach realizes that anyone can get lucky 100% of the time, and, more than that, realize that, good play will have bad beats.
Behavioral Game theory is the more ‘down-to-earth’ approach dealing with one case at a time, especially when Lift Ticket plays with ATC, any two cards- if they don’t know what they’re doing how can you!
The hand that has the highest potential must be a hand that gets played in different ways and in different situations. It's going to be somewhere between the hands that are rarely folded, and the hands that are rarely played. Ace Jack Heads Up is almost never folded before the flop, so we know AJ cannot be the most profitable hand. So keep that in perspective.
Time without attention is worthless, so value attention over time. Therefore: Stop Waiting For “Better Spots” To Get Your Money In! Pick a favorite hand--commit your attention to it and play it strong.
If you don’t have attention, you don’t have time, and if you don't have time-er, well time is money. Can't play poker without money.
Joe plays when he "feels" like it, a Pro, all the time! Call them perpetual shortcuts JOES make when losing poker ASAP; and as any of the PROS will tell you, they don't need cards to win--that's for amateurs. Pro Players specialize in other people's biases! especially that malignant optimistic one that beats its chest and says, "I'm the best player at the table".
SPOILER ALERT: We have a winner---The face of poker now belongs to young Peter Eastgate.
The stakes were high -and when the stakes are high, it's not about winning, it's about excelling, making good decisions.
After 104 hands of heads-up action dominated almost entirely by the 22-year-old Dane, Eastgate turned the wheel straight. The Russian Demidov had two pair--so his money was going all in.
Peter won the bracelet and a first prize totaling $9,152,416 becoming the youngest-ever WSOP Main Event-winner in the process, ending Phil Hellmuth's reign as the previously youngest (Age24) to win the Main Event.
Bluff Magazine did a great job, providing the live audio feed for the WSOP Final Table between Eastgate and Demindov. (Nick Geber and current BLUFF Magazine cover girl LaceyJones) The collective hunch among the pros and Joes was that it was anybody's game. The Anglo/Dane screen named Isser, however, proved that poker is a game of money played with cards- His universal tell to Demidov was betting!
Eastgate was betting on positive expectations and predictable outcomes.—either he held unbeatable cards or made Deminov believe he did , that’s a skill set that pays out 10x over time. Eastgate's bets were declaration that said to Demidov, " I have a better hand than you---Find out if it the truth or a lie. Call me or fold". Demidov act accordingly to continually reward the Dane.... Unless he had the stone cold nuts, when he bet, he wanted Demidov to think he did , and fold.
It will be interesting to the see the Broadcast coverage tonight on ESPN , when the hole cards are revealed with the lipstick camera to see if Peter was telling lies and getting paid, or just getting hit with the deck.
Demidov played his way to the Final table with no cards: Poker without cards is called bluffing. If you never get called, you can never lose. Eastgate called! Yet if the right people don't show up, the right game doesn't either. Eastgate took the edge off the edge of Ivan's Bluffs, having the gift of connecting to the field of awareness that exists behind the con in the confidence of the bluffs.
Bluffing was a big part of both their games since most players miss the flop 33% of the time, heads up is really a game of chicken. Without the right game, however, the right people don't show up. Joe The Plumber (Dennis Phillips) busted out, and mono e mono, an I for an I left both players with blind aggression. Eastgate, however was betting with the best hands; Demidov, buffing with the worst. Stack Size played into it, and early on Ivan was crippled. It was the closest Ivan would l ever get to feeling like he was playing Russian roulette, with Eastgate channeling his Christopher Walken inner Deer Hunter.
Ivan wasn't t a bad player when he fired his blanks, and his bluffs got called. He only had to win a fraction of the time to net a profit. Sklansky's (game)Theory of poker points out that you cannot play optimally unless you include bluffing into your game. Yet, The more Ivan's bluffs mattered, the harder they were to pull off because they were, after all, bluffs.
Moneymaker Effect? What effect did it have on you?
You have to be a somebody in poker before you can be a nobody-Chris Moneymaker was a nobody, a 27 year old accountant who had the zen mind beginner's mind of a champion, won $2.5 million in the Big Game with a $20 Buck satellite "lotto ticket". Nowadays, Chris is a Somebody--- a Pokerstars Spokesmodel who hasn't won a major tournament since his WSOP 2003 anomaly. Check please.
Either raise or fold, but rarely call.
Always aspire to be a nobody in poker. A nobody bets only when the odds are favorable. Gamblers are somebody--They splash the pot, make loose calls , bluff off their stack and bet money at unfavorable odds and eventually lose it all. A nobody cannot lose; he eventually wins all the money that "somebody" players risk. Most Somebodies idea of a good lay down is to flat call. Bluff raising for him is out of the question
NLH is a safety net for somebody gamblers. Not knowing what he is doing because he doesn’t know what he is doing—shields him from his own efforts to lose! These kind of players back into a lot of hands and split pots., and generaly confuse nobody players.
Zero Sum and Then Some
Serious poker is a POSITIVE -SUM GAME. Everybody gets what they want or need. The game itself helps the pie expand. And in (game) theory everybody simultaneously wins in a positve sum game. Yet if Poker is all about reading game theory books and learning ABC theroies and systems, then the games are really like used bookstores---dead information. The game sure doesn't look like a used bookstore, thanks to dealing with everywhere--- ubiquitious internet poker. Nobody players routinely make more cash than people who work in used bookstores!
The Hockey Strike is a negative sum event- NEGATIVE-SUM GAMES are games in which both sides lose. This represents the height of irrationality to positive-sum players, but it proves a surprisingly durable choice of game-players. Pull the grenade and blow us both up. Smashmouth Poker is a less deadly version of combat, and therefore a good way to practice for it if you are out to have a good time and fully expect to lose all your money that you brought to the table that night.
While the Zambonis' sat idle, the strike created new programming slots for ESPN's niche "sports" like Poker-and fueled the Moneymaker Effect: and you know how that affected all our games---more AQ verses small pockets(races), more bad beats and suckouts by DONKS winning, not by what they knew, but what was absent from their game---like fear, experience and regret.
Broke Back Poker-A Guaranteed income for life.
Without the right game, the right people don't show up.
Raising with good hands, pairs. Calling with draws and throwing away junk. Yea, I wanna play with these guys because Karaoke Poker can solve any problem for which a solution is known to exist . Many still sing the patience, tight-is-right ABC by the book style of play--that's an even money scenerio-- You don’t play to break even, you play to break backs.
When weak players stay in the game, they use luck and because of the nature of NLH, can win buckets of money in the short run. Just remember they are only borrowing the chips from you.
Feeling lucky and going into a casino is like feeling athletic and going to a sports bar---You can depend on the rabbit's foot for luck, but it didn't help the rabbit.
When playing people who feel lucky---Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move when you are certain you have the stone cold nuts or at least, great odds. If you get drawn out on the river by this kind of player, be assured he will go broke chasing to the river the next few hands he plays. All players are equally good, it's their play that is bad: A little past playing good is playing badly. You beat bad players and bluff good ones. Bads call too often and rarely fold. The longer you have been playing, the "smarter" you get. Experience rich and technique poor players-smart players---are easier to bluff, because of this fact. They are usually paying attention to the action.
Suited cards like Q2,K4 are cows---units of chaos. Pump 'em or Dump em.
Just put yourself to the simple test--would I play them if they weren't suited; if no dump it. If yes, pump it. The best way to control chaos is at the beginning of an event. Folding is an invisible form of winning. Reducing your risk, not taking chances on it. Any pre-flop hand can be folded—a big pair can go from pretty to pretty ugly unless you isolate, and have a heads up situation. A hand can be favored individually. And a loser collectively (Family pots). There are no chips for second place.
As the game becomes looser, the value of suited connectors and suited starting hands becomes higher, and the monster starting hands like QQ and AK goes down. There is no strict rule for acceptable staring hands. The more people that see the flop, the less likely big hand will hold up.Usually they end in a showdown, and a complete hand-straight or flush---but if the board pairs, you are drawing to the nuts, a full house.
You have to be a somebody in poker before you can be a nobody. A somebody has mystical feelings, overconfidence, invincibility and in general letting luck short cirucit their mind from the heavy lifting of thinking. A nobody just wants to make good decisions.
Learn to play poker in ten years—What’s the rush?
It takes years to become an overnight success at poker, and a lifetime to make it all look simple. In the Life, Liberty and The Pursuit of a fast buck, you have to assume players know what they want to do with their money--it's their privilege to bet or gamble with their money.
Never complain never explain. DON'T TAP THE AQUARIUM--It will disturb the fish--the guys who got their poker Ph.D. from ESPN.
Peter Eastgate Ivan Demidov WSOP 2008 World Series of Poker ESPN WSOP
Chris Moneymaker WSOP Pokerstars Betting verses gambling gambling Poker