A guided, interactive path through the mental models that power my writing, teaching, travel, and poker—designed like a Rise 360-style course with flip cards, reflections, and a live completion bar.
Modules: 5 Buckets + Summary
Format: Flashcards • Reflections • Checklist
Focus: Decisions, Presence, Agency, Story
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Thinking in bets. Optimize for Expected Value, update beliefs as new cards fall, and don't protect sunk costs.
Bayesian Updating — every card or datapoint updates your priors.
Expected Value — stack positive-EV decisions; outcomes are noisy.
Loss Aversion — notice it, don't let it steer you.
Sunk Cost — fold bad pots in work and life.
How this maps to Ed
You've left cruise ships, Afghanistan, and jobs when the EV turned negative. Your books reframe variance as learning, not identity.
Presence over plans. The territory teaches what the map can't. Practice inversion and opportunity cost to protect aliveness.
First Principles — freedom, movement, usefulness.
Map vs Territory — reality beats itinerary.
Opportunity Cost — every yes is a no.
Inversion — avoid what guarantees misery.
Instructional design is systems + clarity. Focus on the vital 20%, teach like Feynman, and close loops fast.
Feynman Technique — explain simply to understand deeply.
Pareto (80/20) — cut to the vital few.
Feedback Loops — iterate toward mastery.
Systems Thinking — see interlocks, not silos.
Agency is practice. Own the locus of control, get stronger under stress, compound what matters, and stay in your lane.