Ed Mental Models

Learning Journey

Ed Reif's Mental Models: From Bets to Presence

A guided, interactive path through the mental models that power my writing, teaching, travel, and poker—designed like a Rise 360-style course with flip cards, reflections, and a live completion bar.

Modules: 5 Buckets + Summary
Format: Flashcards • Reflections • Checklist
Focus: Decisions, Presence, Agency, Story
0/0 items completed

Thinking in bets. Optimize for Expected Value, update beliefs as new cards fall, and don't protect sunk costs.

Bayesian Updating — every card or datapoint updates your priors.
Expected Value — stack positive-EV decisions; outcomes are noisy.
Loss Aversion — notice it, don't let it steer you.
Sunk Cost — fold bad pots in work and life.
How this maps to Ed

You've left cruise ships, Afghanistan, and jobs when the EV turned negative. Your books reframe variance as learning, not identity.

Presence over plans. The territory teaches what the map can't. Practice inversion and opportunity cost to protect aliveness.

First Principles — freedom, movement, usefulness.
Map vs Territory — reality beats itinerary.
Opportunity Cost — every yes is a no.
Inversion — avoid what guarantees misery.

Instructional design is systems + clarity. Focus on the vital 20%, teach like Feynman, and close loops fast.

Feynman Technique — explain simply to understand deeply.
Pareto (80/20) — cut to the vital few.
Feedback Loops — iterate toward mastery.
Systems Thinking — see interlocks, not silos.

Agency is practice. Own the locus of control, get stronger under stress, compound what matters, and stay in your lane.

Locus of Control — internal > external.
Anti-fragility — stressors can strengthen.
Circle of Competence — double down on your edge.
Compound Interest — habits, relationships, reputation.

Make meaning, not noise. Use framing and simplicity, honor randomness, and think in second-order effects.

Framing — angle determines meaning.
Narrative Fallacy — story ≠ truth (but story moves people).
Occam's Razor — prefer simple explanations.
Second-Order Thinking — consequences of consequences.

Your Core 7 — Quick-Use Checklist

These are the models that feel like your DNA. Tick them as you apply them this week.

Reflection prompts (5 minutes)
  • Where did I let loss aversion block a +EV move this month?
  • What assumption can I re-write from first principles this week?
  • Which relationship or habit deserves compounding attention today?
  • What second-order effect am I currently ignoring?
"Win with systems; narrate with honesty; travel as practice. The frontier is your next well-chosen decision."

Archive

Show more