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404 Field Manual Fallibilism Field Manual 404 Field Manual: Explanations Over Predictions I write for people who prefer maps to slogans. Reality responds to what you understand well enough to act on. Your browser does not support the audio element. Link 1) SIGNAL — Reality Check Rule: Explanation beats prediction when the weather turns. There’s an objective world. Your job isn’t to decorate forecasts—it’s to explain what is and why it behaves that way. Bridge wings. Gale force. Blind swell. Predictions said “fine.” The checklists that explained systems saved the watch. ...

The Beginning of Infinity — Ed Reif Digital Essay The Beginning of Infinity — Stamped by Ed Reif Why it's good to be wrong provocations reframed through lived miles—ships and deserts, poker tables and classrooms. The Beginning of Infinity — Stamped by Ed Reif Do the work only you would do. Become category‑of‑one by being unmistakably yourself. Expand all Collapse all Jump to a quote 1. Error-correction → infinity 2. No problems → no life 3. Create options 4. Humane error removal 5. Conjecture → criticism → evidence 6. Explanatory power 7. Good explanations drive progress 8. Optimism = failure reframed 9. Universe as home 10. Every beginning = infinity 11. Choose better stories 12. Emergence 13. Stacked infinities 14. Any room is infinite 15. Duty to be optimistic 16...